本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛The developed world is facing a hard reality check now - due to the over spending in the last couple of decades, there are only two things left to do :
1) cut spending
2) increase tax
Well, none seenms attractives to me. But the truth is: like it or not, both will happen (some in public sector, some in private sector. Union is strong here in Canada. lol).
Now, what about our IT folks? hmmm.. bad news: WE ARE THE TARGET because we are the cost center ( Some may arugue that we are the renovation engine. Without the advance of IT, companies will lose the competitive edge. LOL..Very true, but it does NOT mean they need us to make all this happen. We are actually digging up the tomb for ourselves, as I type)!
Famous Mikesmith's prediction:
Within next five to ten years, the IT work force in developed world will be reduced between 25-50% due to:
1) Enabling technologies
Server virtualization, cloud computing, storage technology, unified communications - all these.. are enabling technologies to.... CUT people! or call it "resources". If a corporation has 10 data centers today, have 100 server admin, 100 DBA, 100 network admin, 500 developers, 500 QA, 200 BA etc etc.. Within 2-5 years, there will only be two data center left.. and guess what, they don't need that many people. This is actually a better scenario, as the cloud is still privately owned. If the cloud goes "public", hehe, very few, if any, IT admin guys will be needed.Another round of consolidation is happening, faster than you thought.
2) Process improvement or un-improvement
Fashion: Out-sourcing turns to in-sourcing, out-tasking, etc.. Business process keeps changing, for the better or worse.. Every year, CIO's are looking at how to cut IT expense. If I gave a proposal to any CIO, saying, by using my process, I can save you 20% of IT cost year over year. NONE, trust me, none CIO can justify it to reject my proposal. Laughable? heh? Not really. Because this is what has been happening.. What is the deciding factor of the IT "cost" of a company? People! CxO looks at IT "resources" like a number... We ARE a number, calculated into TCO.If there is a better calculation somewhere else, like in India, China, Argentina,wherever, they will all go for it..
3) Effective work force
After 1) and 2), now, the IT department has 50% of the original work force. Guess what, we are still doing the same thing. LOL.. Why, because we are cheap!更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
1) cut spending
2) increase tax
Well, none seenms attractives to me. But the truth is: like it or not, both will happen (some in public sector, some in private sector. Union is strong here in Canada. lol).
Now, what about our IT folks? hmmm.. bad news: WE ARE THE TARGET because we are the cost center ( Some may arugue that we are the renovation engine. Without the advance of IT, companies will lose the competitive edge. LOL..Very true, but it does NOT mean they need us to make all this happen. We are actually digging up the tomb for ourselves, as I type)!
Famous Mikesmith's prediction:
Within next five to ten years, the IT work force in developed world will be reduced between 25-50% due to:
1) Enabling technologies
Server virtualization, cloud computing, storage technology, unified communications - all these.. are enabling technologies to.... CUT people! or call it "resources". If a corporation has 10 data centers today, have 100 server admin, 100 DBA, 100 network admin, 500 developers, 500 QA, 200 BA etc etc.. Within 2-5 years, there will only be two data center left.. and guess what, they don't need that many people. This is actually a better scenario, as the cloud is still privately owned. If the cloud goes "public", hehe, very few, if any, IT admin guys will be needed.Another round of consolidation is happening, faster than you thought.
2) Process improvement or un-improvement
Fashion: Out-sourcing turns to in-sourcing, out-tasking, etc.. Business process keeps changing, for the better or worse.. Every year, CIO's are looking at how to cut IT expense. If I gave a proposal to any CIO, saying, by using my process, I can save you 20% of IT cost year over year. NONE, trust me, none CIO can justify it to reject my proposal. Laughable? heh? Not really. Because this is what has been happening.. What is the deciding factor of the IT "cost" of a company? People! CxO looks at IT "resources" like a number... We ARE a number, calculated into TCO.If there is a better calculation somewhere else, like in India, China, Argentina,wherever, they will all go for it..
3) Effective work force
After 1) and 2), now, the IT department has 50% of the original work force. Guess what, we are still doing the same thing. LOL.. Why, because we are cheap!更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net