×

Loading...

Topic

This topic has been archived. It cannot be replied.
  • 枫下家园 / 理财投资税务 / 说起保险，我有一个震惊世界的大疑问 -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 {292} (#302144@0)
    保险经纪告诉我，35岁起保30万的话每月支付110元。按人均期望寿命75岁，所以算给付40年。

    借用贷款的计算器，如果贷款30万40年，年息7%，月付1842.56.

    *贷款是现在给你 *保险是死后给别人，所以：
    每$1在40年后为（1+0.07）^40 = 14.97

    1842.56/14.97 = 123.

    保险公司还是亏本啊！！！会不会倒闭啊？
    • 换一个算法 -ottawa(ottawa); 2001-12-18 {349} (#302374@0)
      假如你是银行，每个月借给别人110快，年息是7％，连续40年，那么你在40年后借款人要还多少呢？
      第一个月的借款要还：110×（1＋0。07/12）^(40*12)＝1650
      第二个月的借款要还：110* (1+0.07/12)^(40*12-1)
      ......

      最后一个月： 110×（1＋0。07/12）（40×12－40×12）=110

      以上加起来：
      简单点：
      Sum＝ (1650+110)/2 * 40*12 =422400

      另外还有物价因素。
      • your sum is wrong. the linear average is much high than the actual curve average. -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302391@0)
    • 你没借钱，你在存钱。每月存110，年息7%，30年，差不多有30万。而30年平均年息应该高于7%，那部分是人家赚的。 -rollor(Rollor); 2001-12-18 (#302434@0)
      • 存钱和借钱的原理是一样的，除了30万交付的时间。我已把这个因素计算进去了。用借钱来算只是利用网上的利息计算工具。仔细想想，算法没错。 -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302443@0)
        • 不对。你现在交的110元中只有10元左右是对死亡风险的保险，其他的近100元都被保险公司用在别处了。还有，这个保险是终身有效还是只到75岁？两者区别极大。 -rollor(Rollor); 2001-12-18 (#302451@0)
          • Universal Life is 终身有效. 这 300000 是迟早有的。说75岁是为了算平均值。下面是一目了然的新算法: -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 {427} (#302460@0)
            每年存一元 存n年, 年息x%
            (1+x）^（n-1）+（1+x）^（n-2）+...+(1+x）^0
            =>
            1） Sn = S(n-1) + (1+x）^(n-1)
            2）(1+x）* S(n-1）= Sn - (1+x)

            1) * (1+x) then substituted by 2) =>
            (1+x)*Sn = (1+x)*S(n-1) + (1+x)^n
            =>
            (1+x)*Sn = Sn - (1+x) + (1+x)^n
            =>
            Sn = [(1+x)^n - (1+x)]/x

            If n = 40, x = 7%
            S40 = 198.63

            110/m = 1320/year

            Money we can have after 40 years:

            1320 * 198.63 = 262192, which is less than 300000!
            • 你有没有算这30年的通货膨胀？还有，保险公司可以用这笔钱做投资。 -checkme(checkme); 2001-12-18 (#302486@0)
              • yeah, average return for 投资 could be 10%. And for stocks, it could be up to 20%. This is only for personal investment. -tweety(RedMenace); 2001-12-18 (#302492@0)
                • he. why the bank lend your mortgage at 6.25%? why don't they struggle for 10% or 20%? Any pulse should be filtered from long-run investment. -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302506@0)
                  • 我想如果你把银行贷款利率作为长期投资的回报率的话，那贷款的人怎么赚钱？ -checkme(checkme); 2001-12-18 (#302510@0)
              • 长期投资有7%的回报已经很好了。任何投资已考虑了通胀的因素了，否则银行利息还要更高。 -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302493@0)
                • 我的意思是，比如保险公司用你第一个月的110元和其他人的一起买了层楼，那这30年这层楼可以赚多少？是怎样的一个百分比？ -checkme(checkme); 2001-12-18 (#302503@0)
                • 长期投资有7%的回报 is very bad. Read Rich Dad Poor Dad. -tweety(RedMenace); 2001-12-18 (#302625@0)
            • You are about right in your calcs, except that: -rounder(rounder); 2001-12-18 {492} (#302508@0)
              Premiums are paid by month, so it growths at (7%/12 ) per month instead of 7% per year;

              Also they are paid at the beginning of the period, so interest starts to accrue a little earlier than the end mode.

              I used the FV formula in excel to calculate it and got 290,381 at the end of 40 years.

              Interestingly, if you increase the annual return to 8%, after 40 years the investment is worth 384,080.
              So if the insurance companies earns 8% instead of 7%, they will be doing quite well.
              • Ok. You are good. -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302511@0)
              • This is convincing. Individuals may not get a sustained ROI of 7% annually that easy. -baden(Booster); 2001-12-18 {366} (#302537@0)
                So if one selects the investment, no insurance, he/she may not be able to get there with the same amount of investment.

                Also the money in the investment is subject to tax when one dies, but the death benefit from life insurance is not.

                I've heard people talking about paying the tax on assets when one dies. This is maybe another advantage of life insurance.
              • 我的计算结果也大致如此。加拿大男女人均寿命分别为76岁和82岁，长期投资收益也会高于7%，所以，保险公司肯定有的赚。 -rollor(Rollor); 2001-12-18 (#302633@0)
            • Do UL insurer charge some kind of account admin fee on top? I'll be surprised if they don't... -rounder(rounder); 2001-12-18 (#302659@0)
      • how do you get the conclution that the balance will be 300K if you deposit 110 monthly at the annual interest rate of 7% for 30 years? -baden(Booster); 2001-12-18 {230} (#302471@0)
        Fot these 30 years your contribution altogether is 110*12*30 = 39,600.00

        If the interest is calculated twice annually (every 6 month), by end of the 30th year, the balance will be at about 121,989.

        Is this calculation right?
        • Almost. May be around 125,000 -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302474@0)
    • Your premium is way higher than 110 when you grow older. -jeffrey815(Smartiecat); 2001-12-18 (#302478@0)
      • no, no, no. As for UL, the rate is kept same. The broker told me this as an advantage to Term Life. -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302482@0)
        • Oh, sorry. didn't know that... But do they still cover you if you are over 75 yr old? -jeffrey815(Smartiecat); 2001-12-18 (#302490@0)
          • I wish they don't charge me after 75, but will they? The only fact is when I die, they pay 300k. -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302494@0)
            • for UL, you can get the money BEFORE you die. -tweety(RedMenace); 2001-12-18 (#302498@0)
              • No thanks. I can wait. -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302531@0)
                • actually it's the beauty of UL. You can use the money when you are old. Did your broker tell you? And you should be covered untill you die. -tweety(RedMenace); 2001-12-18 (#302641@0)
            • So when 3 people die over 75, they don't need to cover it. So they make money! -jeffrey815(Smartiecat); 2001-12-18 (#302501@0)
            • You should ask some students who's in Acturial Science. They study this type of mathematical modelling stuffs for insurance companies. Any Act. Sci. students in this forum? -jeffrey815(Smartiecat); 2001-12-18 (#302502@0)
              • 太难了。据说整个中国大陆也没有几个精算师。 -rollor(Rollor); 2001-12-18 (#302600@0)
                • 即使有了精算师，没有一定的数据也算不出来。 -greybluesky(㊣SLK); 2001-12-18 (#302644@0)
    • 总结一吓。保险公司赚钱的唯一可能就是保险人口不断增长。也就是老鼠会性质。 -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302499@0)
      • 这样想好象有点太简单了. 保险公司实际上也是投资公司,主要还是靠投资赚钱吧. -tweety(RedMenace); 2001-12-18 (#302517@0)
        • I don't understand what you said. Please check the insurance price. They are always going up while the humen being's average life is also glowing. What's a cheat! They are rats in deed, believe me -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302525@0)
          • life insurance is just one kind of products. it is good for BOTH live and dead people. Hope you can understand this. if you don't like it, just ignore it. -tweety(RedMenace); 2001-12-18 (#302623@0)
    • OTTAWA's calculation is correct. You should use compound interest rate not simple interest rate to calculate. -gucci(gucci); 2001-12-18 (#302585@0)
      • The compound interest is most often calculated on a semiannually or annually basis, not monthly. So the individual's ROI is less than an orgnization's, i.g., an insurance company. -baden(Booster); 2001-12-18 {64} (#302593@0)
        Another word, the interest is not making money most of the time.
      • I did. My 2 ways bear same result. -noexit(省油的灯); 2001-12-18 (#302610@0)
    • 所以保险是比存款回报率更高的一种投资方式。 -greybluesky(㊣SLK); 2001-12-18 {861} (#302619@0)
      保险公司的计算方式很复杂。首先，75岁并不是平均死亡年龄。保险公司内部会有一个死亡表供推出一个新产品时计算使用。死亡表根据男女不同，身体状况不同，生活地点不同，人种不同等，有不同的数据，这个就不是我们考虑的啦。另外，每个险种的具体条件不同，其中规定很明细，你最好仔细看看，很多情况下是不全赔的。那个经纪人当然都会说对你最有利的条件。

      另外，保险公司的投资方式有很多种。例如寿险，他们每年会根据死亡率和被保人情况计算当年可能理赔的数量，留下来做储备金。其余的钱根据经验和市场状况做不同的风险投资。所以大的，成熟的保险公司对我们来说更可靠。

      例如， “911”致使很多保险公司涨价，就是因为他们本来的储备金可能根本就不够赔偿，所以动用投资基金，或者某些投资必须立即终止，而当时经济情况有不好，很多投资可能根本没有汇报... 恶性循环致使很大程度上破坏了保险公司的正常运作。美国政府宣布这是“战争”其实在很大程度上保护了保险公司，因为很多由战争引起的财产损失是不用理赔的。
    • 保险公司的投资回报一般回大于7%. -yabay9(bay); 2001-12-20 (#304753@0)
枫下论坛主坛 /  枫下家园 /  理财投资税务