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  • 请教,FORECASTING, 这个活老板交待下来,可是自己对这个没有经验,想问是自己照搬去年的,还是去学一门比较专业一点的课程比较好?
    • What a great topic!!!! Can anyone shares some of their forecasting experiences? Many thanks. Also Happymonk, can you please be more specific? Industry, compnay size, complete P&L or only Revenue and margin, etc...
      • If i remember this correctly, the Accounting associations e.g. CMA/ CPA, offer some related training courses. Since none of my employers agree to cover the costs, I have never done any of them. It would be interesting to hear other's feedback.
      • small company, complete P&L.
        • Some thoughts.
          本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Does your company has any types of forecasting before? How about Plan? I would suggest you to check the existing process/templates/methodology first and don’t make any drastic changes. Planning and Forecasting usually go hand in hand. We compare our forecast with the plan. To apply a totally different approach in forecasting may cause the difficulties of explaining the variance. Of course, there are always exceptions, which leads to my second question.
          Do you know what triggers this requirement? What’s the management’s objective? I guess if they are satisfied with the current forecasting, you probably won’t ask the question. Just follow what they did the year before. Since you ask the question, I sense there is something they need you to fix. Then, what’s the hidden mandate? Revenue or opex? Trust me. This is very important.

          Besides the templates or models, I would also suggest you to review the existing process, timeline, stakeholders involved, review and approval plicy, etc. Not sure how much authority you have on deciding the scope and the frequency of the forecasting. If you do have a say, please carefully plan it.

          The companies I have worked for are medium to large in terms of size. What I suggested might not apply to your circumstance well. To comment on Forecasting such a big subject might not be a task for one person. Look forward to other's input.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • I provided this training before (from small, mid, and large company). If you are interesting, please let me know.
    • 这个不用上什么课吧。一言盖之:base line+opps-risks+seasonality+NPI+other.三张表,最复杂的是cash flow,最简单但是最贴近business的是P/L,B/S涉及working capital。曾经做的B/S forecasting,有200多行,每行都代表不同的business story。简单来说,
      forecasting技巧并不难掌握,难的是对business的理解和把握,assumptions的准确性,和准确call in&call out risks and opps.
    • 这个东西可以很复杂,也可以很简单。重要的是要持续,可比和预见。你还是用以前的。算一下前3年sales的走势再问老板今后市场对sales和产品margin的影响. 其他的调整inflation,固定资产折旧算个3-5年就差不多了。前几天有个讲rolling forecast ,你该收到邮件。算1个Pdh。