本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Taking the sp500 as an example, the markets have crossed over their 200 day and 300 day exponential moving averages. In past bear markets, markets typically will bounce up to these levels, only to sell off to new lows. Given that history, it is not unexpected that we would experience at least some resistance at the 1410 range on the SP500. It will take more than a few days of trading to establish whether we are at genuine resistance or not. From a technical standpoint, I can't say whether the bulls or the bears have it won - but I can say that 1410 is where the fight will rage.
My practical advice remains that most investors ought to sit this fight out. If you have the ability to eat some potential losses, I would probably favor a bullish posture on technical grounds, mainly because I see significant support at the 50 day EMA - producing downside risk of probably about 2%. On the other hand, a break above the 300 day EMA could produce significantly greater upside than 2%. The risk/reward on a bullish stance seems marginally better, but again, any gains would be hard won. I would abandon any bullish posture, if the market fails to observe the 50 day EMA as support. In fact, at that point I would probably switch out into cash because there would be a strong potential for the market to set new lows for the year.

What ever you want to achieve, you should wait after the trend being established.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net