本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Gold price may double in long-term: Citigroup
Posted: May 21, 2008, 9:46 AM by Jonathan Ratner
Mining
Profit-taking by investors on a firmer U.S. dollar and a seasonal slowdown in fabrication may be working against gold, but spot prices continue to remain strong near the US$920 per ounce mark. And bullion could climb much higher if things don’t change significantly, according to a new report from Citigroup.
Mining and metals analyst John Hill said the mix of macro and supply/demand factors, along with the same forces that have pushed gold higher for the last five years, give him good reason to remain bullish on gold. He sees prices climbing through 2009 and 2010, but a significant lift may not come until the fall when fabrication constrains supplies.
“Longer term, we would not be surprised to see gold double from current levels as the global policy prescriptions for the credit crunch remain powerfully and uniformly re-flationary,” the analyst told clients.
Citigroup’s gold price forecasts are US$906, US$950 and US$1000 for 2008 through 2010. Gold prices averaged US$924 per ounce in the first quarter, a 18% quarter-over-quarter increase, and climbed above US$1000 on March 17.
Recent figures from the World Gold Council showed that investment surged 163% to 284 tonnes in the first quarter of 2008, but the amount of gold jewelry fell 21% to 445 tonnes on an annual basis. This pattern is consistent with the fourth quarter of 2007 and echoes 2006, Mr. Hill noted.
But while jewelry demand in India and elsewhere in Asia has proven to be sensitive to price changes, deregulation and rising wealth in China and Russia led those nations to buck the global trend with demand increases of 7% and 9%, respectively. China is now the world’s top jewelry market, he added.
Mine supply was flat in the first quarter as new capacity did not offset declines from mature regions, and Citigroup does not expect lower levels of gold de-hedging will create a surplus.
Jonathan Ratner更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
Posted: May 21, 2008, 9:46 AM by Jonathan Ratner
Mining
Profit-taking by investors on a firmer U.S. dollar and a seasonal slowdown in fabrication may be working against gold, but spot prices continue to remain strong near the US$920 per ounce mark. And bullion could climb much higher if things don’t change significantly, according to a new report from Citigroup.
Mining and metals analyst John Hill said the mix of macro and supply/demand factors, along with the same forces that have pushed gold higher for the last five years, give him good reason to remain bullish on gold. He sees prices climbing through 2009 and 2010, but a significant lift may not come until the fall when fabrication constrains supplies.
“Longer term, we would not be surprised to see gold double from current levels as the global policy prescriptions for the credit crunch remain powerfully and uniformly re-flationary,” the analyst told clients.
Citigroup’s gold price forecasts are US$906, US$950 and US$1000 for 2008 through 2010. Gold prices averaged US$924 per ounce in the first quarter, a 18% quarter-over-quarter increase, and climbed above US$1000 on March 17.
Recent figures from the World Gold Council showed that investment surged 163% to 284 tonnes in the first quarter of 2008, but the amount of gold jewelry fell 21% to 445 tonnes on an annual basis. This pattern is consistent with the fourth quarter of 2007 and echoes 2006, Mr. Hill noted.
But while jewelry demand in India and elsewhere in Asia has proven to be sensitive to price changes, deregulation and rising wealth in China and Russia led those nations to buck the global trend with demand increases of 7% and 9%, respectively. China is now the world’s top jewelry market, he added.
Mine supply was flat in the first quarter as new capacity did not offset declines from mature regions, and Citigroup does not expect lower levels of gold de-hedging will create a surplus.
Jonathan Ratner更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net