本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛If you look into Lehman Brother's book, you will see how ugly it is. Most analysts on the Street believe that LEH will not survive as an independent company. Recently, short sellers have launched a spate of attacks on LEH shares.

Do you want to short LEH shares too? Well, first check on your stomach. If there is a rumor overnoght that Barclay will buy LEH for $30 per share, LEH could jump to $33-35. You probably will never have an opportunity to fix your mistake.

Well, you may think about it another way: Since LEH will bot out some day, I would like to go long and wait for harvest some premiums. Wait a minute. Nobody can tell you that LEH will be bot with some premium. LEH has only about $38bln capitals, but it now still controls almost $400bln assets (My numbers may not be accuarate). Although LEH has raised some funds, nobody can guarantee that it will not follow Bear Stern's footprints. If this happens, LEH will be "fire sold" like Bear Stern, and you will lose huge instead of receiving some premium.

Then, what can we do? The answer is simple. Stay away from LEH, either long or short.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net