本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛1, Nobody knows exactly how much "toxic waste" there are on the Bank's balance sheet among US Banks or around the world. Some banks are not forth coming on their exposure, others are financed through off-balance sheet funding vehicle, therefore, the the exact number is a mystery. However, according to Mr. Bill Gross, another $500billion seems to be need to calm the market.
2, In terms of US housing market. There are two things need to be considered. a) the Asset value keeps falling. When the asset value reaches the bottom, that's when we will start seeing the recovery of the debt/credit related financial crisis. b)stress tests on existing mortgage debts, two street conventions are based on UBS and JP Morgan methodology, Intex and Markit seems to be the only two data source provide necessary data for analysis. However, due to complexity of the underlying asset classes are not simply subprime, alt-a or prime mortgages, but also include RMBS, CMBS, CDO, CDO Squares. Information related to complex ABS are difficult to help analyst to figure out whether these are subprime, alt-a or prime related products. Different assumptions are utilized for delinquency rate, and default rate. However, honestly speaking, when Merrill sold their "toxic waste" for 22cents on a dollar back in Aug, everyone was shocked on the street. Fortunately, no such fire sales were followed by other banks.
3, Seems like the trouble related to the Mortgage related ABS has spilled over into other asset classes. GM selling GMAC, big three suspended their leasing options for new vehicles. The ripple effect is yet to be seen on the main street.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
2, In terms of US housing market. There are two things need to be considered. a) the Asset value keeps falling. When the asset value reaches the bottom, that's when we will start seeing the recovery of the debt/credit related financial crisis. b)stress tests on existing mortgage debts, two street conventions are based on UBS and JP Morgan methodology, Intex and Markit seems to be the only two data source provide necessary data for analysis. However, due to complexity of the underlying asset classes are not simply subprime, alt-a or prime mortgages, but also include RMBS, CMBS, CDO, CDO Squares. Information related to complex ABS are difficult to help analyst to figure out whether these are subprime, alt-a or prime related products. Different assumptions are utilized for delinquency rate, and default rate. However, honestly speaking, when Merrill sold their "toxic waste" for 22cents on a dollar back in Aug, everyone was shocked on the street. Fortunately, no such fire sales were followed by other banks.
3, Seems like the trouble related to the Mortgage related ABS has spilled over into other asset classes. GM selling GMAC, big three suspended their leasing options for new vehicles. The ripple effect is yet to be seen on the main street.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net