In a “Winner’s game”, players win by making offensive moves that beat the opponent(s). In a “Loser’s game”, players win by staying defensive and win when the opponent(s) commit a mistake. If we admit the market is efficient, especially in North America , then it is a “loser’s game”, which means your best strategy in indexing. Indeed, there are so many extremely well trained professionals poring through company information all day, all the public information is probably already reflected in the price by the time we get it. If I “beat” the market on occasion, it is probably by luck rather than by skill.


Then why am I not putting all my money in S&P or TSX? Because I think there are two situations under which I can have a chance:

1) When I think I have particular knowledge about a "blind spot" to most analysts for a certain country, industry or stock

2) When the market in shock, like after 911 or Feb 27 this year.