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这种工程该不该上马,应该是急于风险分析的基础上。风险本身要分成两方面,一是consequence,二是frequency.
hearts
(hearts)
比如象你讲的核电站的hazard,是属于high consequence和low frequency的event,就好比飞机在交通工具中的风险地位一样。这么大的工程风险分析的钱至少应该花几百万美金吧。我们无法得知三峡工程的决策依据是什么,但愿不要象 过去我在国内作项目一样,仅仅说是技术上可行,经济合理就可以了。
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Last Updated: 2001-11-24
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