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打开最后那个 link,export data to excel,点几下鼠标,你可以看到这个 all causes per week (2019 vs 2020) chart ---- 比较直观。

 

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  • 枫下家园 / 医药保健 / 美国冠状病毒大流行,可美国2020年的月均死亡人数和前几年比没变 :-) 美国的月均死亡人数,2017 to 2020 TOTAL U.S. DEATHS [ALL CAUSES] 2017:234,000/month 2018:237,000/month 2019:238,000/month 2020:236,000/month(Jan to Sep)
    • 本来该自然死亡的都死在covid-19上了? +3
    • 根据你给的连接,2020 一月到九月共死亡2,326,448人,月平均死亡258494人,比2019多很多。既然有基本数据,就不要人云亦云,自己算一下可以少交智商税,多出来和covid死亡人数差不多 +7
      • 原文很清楚,2,130,000,请教一下你的” 一月到九月共死亡2,326,448人“是怎么算出来的。CDC数据有两列都是新冠死亡数字,一个是新冠总死亡数字,一个是新冠是主要死因的死亡数字。要自己算的话,需要去掉“新冠是主要死因”的那列,要不然等于把“新冠是主要死因”算了2次
        2020 Total Deaths US (jan - week 9/26): 2,130,000 (236,000/month)
        https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6📁
        2,130,000 + (236,000/month x 3) [Oct, Nov, Dec] = 2,838,000 [assumption based on monthly avg]
        • 这里是从你的连接中下载的数据,存成csv文件,导到excel里可以自己算。第一列是总死亡数字,既然是算总死亡人数,就不需要管其他列 +2
          本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Jurisdiction of Occurrence,MMWR Year,MMWR Week,Week Ending Date,All Cause,Natural Cause,Septicemia (A40-A41),Malignant neoplasms (C00-C97),Diabetes mellitus (E10-E14),Alzheimer disease (G30),Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18),Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40-J47),"Other diseases of respiratory system (J00-J06,J30-J39,J67,J70-J98)","Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis (N00-N07,N17-N19,N25-N27)","Symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified (R00-R99)","Diseases of heart (I00-I09,I11,I13,I20-I51)",Cerebrovascular diseases (I60-I69),"COVID-19 (U071, Multiple Cause of Death)","COVID-19 (U071, Underlying Cause of Death)",flag_allcause,flag_natcause,flag_sept,flag_neopl,flag_diab,flag_alz,flag_inflpn,flag_clrd,flag_otherresp,flag_nephr,flag_otherunk,flag_hd,flag_stroke,flag_cov19mcod,flag_cov19ucod
          United States,2020,1,1/4/2020,"60,108","54,987",846,"11,560","1,823","2,527","1,556","3,495","1,063","1,094",715,"14,171","3,103",1,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,2,1/11/2020,"60,619","55,685",865,"11,953","1,937","2,559","1,527","3,702","1,035","1,089",746,"13,855","3,181",0,0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,3,1/18/2020,"59,203","54,406",829,"11,683","1,809","2,483","1,483","3,520",990,"1,122",719,"13,528","3,245",2,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,4,1/25/2020,"58,811","54,106",825,"11,796","1,850","2,497","1,483","3,376",969,"1,105",742,"13,518","3,159",1,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,5,2/1/2020,"58,584","53,845",807,"11,922","1,820","2,461","1,411","3,290",975,"1,074",741,"13,382","3,067",0,0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,6,2/8/2020,"59,316","54,333",810,"11,689","1,952","2,503","1,460","3,396",973,"1,133",723,"13,949","3,046",1,0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,7,2/15/2020,"58,717","53,954",798,"11,793","1,839","2,528","1,512","3,474",976,"1,069",754,"13,594","3,075",0,0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,8,2/22/2020,"58,755","53,950",781,"11,761","1,864","2,505","1,459","3,447",967,"1,052",775,"13,558","3,072",5,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,9,2/29/2020,"59,188","54,261",819,"11,769","1,819","2,515","1,504","3,441","1,007","1,090",835,"13,645","3,118",9,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,10,3/7/2020,"59,561","54,364",810,"11,702","1,856","2,504","1,601","3,454","1,002","1,073",840,"13,620","3,085",35,31,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,11,3/14/2020,"58,558","53,517",764,"11,562","1,737","2,435","1,633","3,375",988,"1,073",829,"13,384","3,150",53,50,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,12,3/21/2020,"59,130","54,316",842,"11,723","1,826","2,508","1,749","3,373","1,020","1,098",797,"13,143","3,059",571,537,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,13,3/28/2020,"62,898","58,223",854,"11,764","2,035","2,741","1,787","3,515","1,059","1,032",813,"13,665","3,062","3,155","2,983",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,14,4/4/2020,"72,133","67,419",940,"11,586","2,291","2,864","1,868","3,533","1,033","1,034",929,"14,882","3,152","10,018","9,526",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,15,4/11/2020,"78,929","73,986",842,"11,534","2,340","2,949","1,631","3,440","1,028","1,122",905,"15,692","3,188","16,179","15,383",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,16,4/18/2020,"76,572","71,832",751,"11,178","2,251","2,894","1,251","3,187",936,"1,091",911,"14,508","3,195","17,058","16,164",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,17,4/25/2020,"73,662","68,710",738,"11,337","2,072","2,798","1,152","2,978",902,986,976,"13,768","3,050","15,425","14,534",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,18,5/2/2020,"69,055","63,983",738,"11,065","1,920","2,716","1,015","2,918",860,961,911,"12,911","3,027","13,140","12,352",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,19,5/9/2020,"66,642","61,330",725,"11,001","1,955","2,489",864,"2,799",869,943,"1,012","13,080","2,843","11,163","10,386",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,20,5/16/2020,"64,297","59,129",678,"11,249","1,947","2,428",861,"2,757",789,979,987,"12,662","2,957","9,158","8,415",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,21,5/23/2020,"61,388","56,164",713,"11,091","1,816","2,416",805,"2,667",752,916,"1,090","12,657","2,815","7,157","6,502",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,22,5/30/2020,"59,419","54,132",649,"10,882","1,791","2,260",755,"2,629",760,894,"1,100","12,307","2,842","6,105","5,526",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,23,6/6/2020,"58,617","53,133",726,"11,063","1,699","2,299",705,"2,548",775,908,"1,130","12,335","2,783","4,983","4,445",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,24,6/13/2020,"57,728","52,484",691,"11,103","1,719","2,328",692,"2,492",739,922,"1,248","12,242","2,830","4,187","3,685",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,25,6/20/2020,"57,619","52,436",681,"11,122","1,765","2,349",753,"2,551",761,931,"1,378","12,206","2,904","3,795","3,311",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,26,6/27/2020,"58,094","52,967",719,"11,322","1,739","2,283",722,"2,516",774,947,"1,534","12,238","2,943","3,767","3,268",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,27,7/4/2020,"59,294","54,124",680,"11,234","1,877","2,344",654,"2,601",771,979,"1,750","12,553","2,802","4,448","3,961",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,28,7/11/2020,"61,201","56,154",753,"11,260","1,908","2,446",732,"2,576",746,903,"2,021","12,647","2,884","5,654","5,129",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,29,7/18/2020,"62,112","57,270",705,"11,239","1,829","2,474",754,"2,598",704,962,"2,128","12,393","2,945","7,026","6,384",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,30,7/25/2020,"62,583","58,101",668,"11,307","1,874","2,468",763,"2,498",708,945,"2,312","12,349","2,824","7,995","7,302",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,31,8/1/2020,"61,732","57,434",662,"11,161","1,866","2,421",749,"2,632",752,918,"2,527","11,921","2,882","8,007","7,347",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,32,8/8/2020,"61,799","57,701",762,"11,307","1,692","2,390",752,"2,515",713,892,"2,801","12,034","2,964","7,512","6,868",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,33,8/15/2020,"60,823","56,928",708,"11,354","1,761","2,444",722,"2,547",766,923,"2,881","11,890","2,834","6,854","6,204",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,34,8/22/2020,"58,099","54,480",675,"10,871","1,720","2,445",667,"2,462",729,896,"2,978","11,421","2,757","5,849","5,274",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,35,8/29/2020,"55,315","52,044",658,"10,781","1,620","2,260",617,"2,327",678,890,"3,028","10,795","2,733","5,106","4,587",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,36,9/5/2020,"52,108","49,073",610,"10,179","1,504","2,266",626,"2,213",698,802,"2,971","10,429","2,515","4,162","3,668",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,37,9/12/2020,"48,078","45,611",549,"9,723","1,403","2,025",567,"2,093",601,754,"3,041","9,533","2,526","3,313","2,923",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,38,9/19/2020,"38,755","37,168",459,"8,323","1,105","1,780",465,"1,742",533,600,"2,372","8,047","1,992","1,902","1,680",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          United States,2020,39,9/26/2020,"16,946","16,499",208,"3,890",441,866,207,798,262,272,996,"3,604",918,313,293,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          ,,,,"2,326,448","2,150,239",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
          ,,,,258494.2222,238915.4444,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
          • 你说的没错,第一列总合是2326448。如果这个数是准确的,那那篇文章的数就是错误的。除了你的解释,我在等,看看有没有更多的解释,解释原文的数字是怎么算出来的。
            • 为什么等别人的解释,你可以自己从cdc下载数据自己算。点击cdc网页右上角export来下载
              • :-)不是读者,是原文的网站
                • 我给你个解释。cdc数据滞后,例如9-26那星期死了16946人显然太少了,平均每星期死60万左右,新冠大流行时70万
                  • 你有typo, 平均每星期死6万左右, 不是60
                    • 你说得对
                  • 谢谢
      • 另外表扬一下你的研究精神(是真的,不是讽刺你)。我转贴的很多文章都明确说“不要信这篇文章,也不要信作者,根据提供的信息,自己做研究”,文章所在网站提了这一点,但这篇文章没有专门提这一点,我替他补上
        • 我没啥政治立场,只是看不得造谣传谣。我大概知道你的2130000是怎么来的了,总死2326448,新冠死194109,减一下就和2130000不远了 +3
          • EXCELFILE column R: [COVID-19 (U071, Multiple Cause of Death)], column S [COVID-19 (U071, Underlying Cause of Death)] 都用的是CODEU071,所以是重复的,不能重复加
            • 加一个都不行,更别提重复加了!
              • 你说的没错,第一列总合是2326448。如果这个数是准确的,那那篇文章的数就是错误的。除了你的解释,我在等,看看有没有更多的解释,解释原文的数字是怎么算出来的。
                • 你和老家一样胡乱转帖造谣传谣,为何要读者给你解释?!
                  • :-)不是读者,是原文的网站
                • FOX如果真是FOX, 是用了一个表格来忽悠,那个表格说的很清楚,from week ending Feb 1, 就是说它故意少算几个星期,差不多20万
                  • 谢谢,这是另一个解释。我在等等看是原文的网站是否有更多的解释
      • 就用你的数字,258K ·Vs·238k, 新冠增加的死亡人数不足10%
        • 本来就是这样,这10%正好对上死于新冠的20万人
    • 如果真是fox的,那我觉得很恶劣。这不需要我一个博士来算,打开CDC的链接,一个星期一个星期的加起来,结果不同哦
    • 打开最后那个 link,export data to excel,点几下鼠标,你可以看到这个 all causes per week (2019 vs 2020) chart ---- 比较直观。 +1

       

      • 谢谢