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Gov. Bond并不是没有风险。SVB买了太多长期债,在利息急升的情况下,这些债券会有不少的贬值。根据报道,SVB所购的债券Average Duration有6.2

Is Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) a harbinger of things to come across the U.S. and global banking system? Megan Greene, Global Chief Economist at Kroll, shares her views. Read more.
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下茶话 / 工商经济 / 给FDIC和美联储行动迅速鼓掌,用SVB的2000多亿优质资产担保1700多亿的储户存款,稳赚不赔的买卖,还轻松化解了一场挤兑危机! +2
    • 会不会是开了个不好的先例,杀鸡用了武士刀。
      • 这次是天上掉馅饼的生意,老鲍精明的很
        • 有隐患,但是战争时期就随他吧
    • 只有那些有优质资产做抵押的老鲍才肯担保存款,够狠 +1
    • 美联储最鸡贼了, 这次还让财政部用平准基金做担保,看看这次放水美联储能亏多少钱,估计得逼着国会大规模提高债务上限。实际上这几年美联储的资产质量因为大水漫灌一直不断下降。
      • 耶伦也是聪明人,知道SVB的资产值钱,动用不了她的金库
        • 美国政府已经表示了不会动用纳税人的钱。如果有资金缺口,政府会找其他商业银行要份子钱。
          • 她心里清楚这次不用走这么远,不然开了个很坏的先例
    • 还是保富人,这个银行只有3%的客户存款少于25万美元
      • 如果保了还能挣钱,应该。单纯的 +1
    • Gov. Bond并不是没有风险。SVB买了太多长期债,在利息急升的情况下,这些债券会有不少的贬值。根据报道,SVB所购的债券Average Duration有6.2 Gov. Bond并不是没有风险。SVB买了太多长期债,在利息急升的情况下,这些债券会有不少的贬值。根据报道,SVB所购的债券Average Duration有6.2
      Is Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) a harbinger of things to come across the U.S. and global banking system? Megan Greene, Global Chief Economist at Kroll, shares her views. Read more.
      • 这些长期债券本身没有什么风险,到期还是会拿到全款加利息,在利息升后是账面贬值,不套现就没问题。SVB的问题是在利率大升后,储户要提现转投高收益的产品,SVB被逼卖债券,现在只能低卖 +1
        • 风险有很多种。这些债券没有credit risk,但是还是有interest risk。所谓的债券低卖,那也是市场价,因为它持有的债券的利息太低了。如果他们有很多短期债,风险和损失都会小很多。 +3
          • 会不会SVB老总也像肉联房炒炒一样以为美联储不敢加息? +1
            • 这不是老总一个人的问题。高管的收入和当年的业绩挂钩,自然愿意承担更高的风险,以获得高收益带来的高奖金。银行的风控机制本,包括董事会监事会应该有能力阻止银行过度持有长期债券。
              • 所以挤兑破产危机是会瞬间就发生的,之前不是人人都有能力看到,当然是之前埋雷了。做任何投资都要考虑风险,不要随便说肯定赚,包赚,像卖狗皮膏药的🤣🤣 +1
        • "The good news is it is unlikely an SVB-style bankruptcy will extend to the large banks that do have to ascribe to the Basel III rules. "The good news is it is unlikely an SVB-style bankruptcy will extend to the large banks that do have to ascribe to the Basel III rules.
          The bad news is there are other small, community banks that could face bank runs and insolvency. The risk of this is much higher if uninsured depositors of SVB aren’t made whole and have to take a haircut on their deposits. I expect the Fed would insist that any bank purchasing SVB make all creditors whole. If not, businesses will recognize that their uninsured deposits could vanish overnight and will pull their money from smaller community banks and put them in the larger institutions."
        • 不是储户要转投,而是IT公司基本上是亏钱的,以前都是从股市上圈,股市圈不到了就只能动存款。存款下降很快,只好卖长期债券去补窟窿。这事情银行风险控制是有问题,但它也很难想到这一点
          如果是转投,银行也能找到期长的债券来付高的利息。银行就是赚个利差。硅谷银行的问题是行业单一,单个账户金额都超过了保额。一有风声就会挤兑
          • 我说的转投是不在SVB了, 你说的也是可能是其中一个原因,总之储户要提钱, 银行都得兑现投资来付。
      • 强烈要求美国小银行也要满足Basel III requirement. “Regulation put in place after the global financial crisis was in theory supposed to prevent bank runs like this. 强烈要求美国小银行也要满足Basel III requirement. “Regulation put in place after the global financial crisis was in theory supposed to prevent bank runs like this.
        The Basel III Accords were supposed to limit banks borrowing short to lend long. But when the Federal Reserve implemented Basel III in October 2020, it only applied to large, internationally active banks. Most jurisdictions apply Basel III to their entire banking system, but the U.S. has a powerful community bank lobby. Consequently, only the big, international U.S. banks are subject to liquidity coverage ratios and net stable funding ratios.”
    • 历史教训
    • 这么大的 cash flow 问题,就是大银行扯皮也得扯一阵吧,政府没毛病。最近几年的政治势力都是科技精英 lobby 出来的,能不卖力嘛。
      • 挤兑,现在都是网上转账,一天就能让最大银行破产
    • 没有流动性的资产会是优质资产么?你以为是优质,因为是美国政府挂保证,不会违约。可现有的债卷没人要,只能fed自己吸收。接下来发新债卖给谁?如果左手进,右手出,财政部发债,fed 吃进。这样的国家的货币会不出问题么?
      • 拜托学点金融知识再来喷。国债的流动性非常好,可以随时在市场上卖出。 +1
        • 这场危机还只是开始。救还是不救都是死路一条。不救就是多米诺骨牌。救就是整个国家赔进去。这过程就比较复杂惨烈了,不知道大家有没有命看戏。 +1
          • 救的是人们的信心,当然也告诉了银行。随便玩有fed在后面。当然普通人如果遇到这样情况,除了破产没其他选择了。没政府救的。