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JAVA 还有几年寿命?Java Developer's Journal April Editorial "There May Be Trouble Ahead For Java..."

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛JDJ SPECIAL REPORT

Java Developer's Journal April Editorial "There May Be Trouble Ahead For Java..."

Rallies Java Camp Alan Williamson's Editorial Was Read By More Than 100,000 Readers Within Two Hours After It Appeared On SYS-CON's Web Site And Over 500 Readers Responded Within First Two Hours Of Its Publication

By Alan Williamson

As Nat King Cole famously sang, we have to "face the music and dance..." This month's editorial is coming to you with a reader beware warning!
I've been engaged in some great debates over the last month on a variety of topics, but the one that has caught my interest is the old chestnut regarding the longevity of Java. Is it here to stay? If not, how long do we have? Quite rightly, it's being talked about and I've had the good fortune to brush shoulders with a number of big names in our industry who have given me their perspectives on the whole debate. I have my own feelings about where Java is headed and I do believe that if, as a community, we don't get our act together, we may have only five years left at the most. After talking to my counterparts, it would appear I'm being overly generous with five years.
What's happening? Well, it's our old friend C# and its relentless march toward the development community. Setting aside the old argument that due to Microsoft's dominance it may well win the day, it's interesting to look at other reasons why C# may win the battle. Let's blow away some misconceptions that you may or may not be aware of regarding this new kid.
Myth #1: C# is a Windows-only technology.
You could be excused for believing that, but did you know there's a major movement in the open source world to port the CLR (Common Language Runtime, i.e., their JVM!) to operating systems other than MS Windows? Linux, to name one.
Imagine for a moment being able to run your .NET services alongside Apache on a Redhat box, seamlessly integrating into the rest of the network. This alone would be a major blow to server-side Java. It's also a subtle way for Microsoft to unofficially support the growing number of Linux seats without losing face (read www.halcyonsoft.com/news/iNET_PR.asp ).
Myth #2: C# is an inferior Java clone.
This is the most dangerous one and the one you probably tell yourself in order to keep the scales tipped in Java's favor. The truth is, it's not an inferior clone; it's a different clone, with many arguing that the differences are minute to the majority of the developer community. It will be frighteningly easy for Java developers to move over to C# with no real headaches to contend with. I suspect this was always on Microsoft's mind when developing the language (read www.prism.gatech.edu/~gte855q/CsharpVsJava.html ).
Myth #3: C# is for developing Web services only.
Most definitely not, and I have heard this one retorted back to me on a number of occasions. Ironically, this is the one area that could really hurt Java Ð on the client. As you know, Java has not made any significant headway in this space due mainly to its awfully slow Swing implementation. While the recent release of JDK1.4 has brought significant performance gains, it's still nowhere near the speed of its native Windows applications with respect to fast, snappy responses (although it must be said, the speed of a Swing application on a Mac OS-X does show what could be achieved).
C# is the new building block for Windows applications, the next VB! And we know how many applications popped up when VB hit the market (read www.c-sharpcorner.com/WinForms.asp ).
Okay, how many of you think I've abandoned all hope for Java and have gone to the dark side? I suspect some of you are questioning my loyalties at this precise moment, wondering if I'm fit to occupy my role as EIC. Well, don't panic, I'm merely being a realist and looking at it from all angles. You'd be the first ones to complain if I buried my head in the sand and just ignored the threat. We have to look at this together and come up with a strategy that will enable us to effectively take on C#. We'll be getting a lot of heat from all over and we need to be armed with the information and prepared to go back to the drawing board and reeducate the masses. Sadly, they are being led a merry dance by Pied Piper Gates.
Allow me to cite you an example of such blind ignorance and if this doesn't scare you, then I don't know what will. I was recently involved with the Scottish government, discussing technology and what have you, where naturally the topic of Microsoft was high on the agenda. Excusing the fact that these people took a certain pride in believing they knew what was going on and loved name-dropping, the phrase that caught me off guard was the following: "Java? No one is doing that now. Microsoft is no longer supporting it."
Wow! Talk about a major miscommunication.
And this from someone who controls budgets for the technology sector in Scotland. Ironically, I believe he really thinks he has his finger on the pulse of technology. It's sheer ignorance like this that scares me the most. Microsoft has successfully planted and nurtured the seed in people's heads that just because it isn't supporting Java in Windows XP, Java is dead. I have to admit I was taken aback and quite flabbergasted when I heard that retort. I really didn't know where to go with that. So much background information was obviously missing that I wasn't too sure if I would come over as patronizing and whether, ultimately, they would understand.
Sadly, this is not an isolated incident. Ever since I started writing about this topic in my editorials, I've been hearing stories from you regarding similar misconceptions and it scares me. We have a beautiful language here in Java; it has achieved industry-wide support and is pushing forward with great velocity. What can we do to support it?
You do realize we need an anthem. All great causes have an anthem. Something for us to get behind and sing!!! Suggestions gratefully received. We need a Java song!
Until next month…更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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  • 工作学习 / IT杂谈 / JAVA 还有几年寿命?Java Developer's Journal April Editorial "There May Be Trouble Ahead For Java..."
    本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛JDJ SPECIAL REPORT

    Java Developer's Journal April Editorial "There May Be Trouble Ahead For Java..."

    Rallies Java Camp Alan Williamson's Editorial Was Read By More Than 100,000 Readers Within Two Hours After It Appeared On SYS-CON's Web Site And Over 500 Readers Responded Within First Two Hours Of Its Publication

    By Alan Williamson

    As Nat King Cole famously sang, we have to "face the music and dance..." This month's editorial is coming to you with a reader beware warning!
    I've been engaged in some great debates over the last month on a variety of topics, but the one that has caught my interest is the old chestnut regarding the longevity of Java. Is it here to stay? If not, how long do we have? Quite rightly, it's being talked about and I've had the good fortune to brush shoulders with a number of big names in our industry who have given me their perspectives on the whole debate. I have my own feelings about where Java is headed and I do believe that if, as a community, we don't get our act together, we may have only five years left at the most. After talking to my counterparts, it would appear I'm being overly generous with five years.
    What's happening? Well, it's our old friend C# and its relentless march toward the development community. Setting aside the old argument that due to Microsoft's dominance it may well win the day, it's interesting to look at other reasons why C# may win the battle. Let's blow away some misconceptions that you may or may not be aware of regarding this new kid.
    Myth #1: C# is a Windows-only technology.
    You could be excused for believing that, but did you know there's a major movement in the open source world to port the CLR (Common Language Runtime, i.e., their JVM!) to operating systems other than MS Windows? Linux, to name one.
    Imagine for a moment being able to run your .NET services alongside Apache on a Redhat box, seamlessly integrating into the rest of the network. This alone would be a major blow to server-side Java. It's also a subtle way for Microsoft to unofficially support the growing number of Linux seats without losing face (read www.halcyonsoft.com/news/iNET_PR.asp ).
    Myth #2: C# is an inferior Java clone.
    This is the most dangerous one and the one you probably tell yourself in order to keep the scales tipped in Java's favor. The truth is, it's not an inferior clone; it's a different clone, with many arguing that the differences are minute to the majority of the developer community. It will be frighteningly easy for Java developers to move over to C# with no real headaches to contend with. I suspect this was always on Microsoft's mind when developing the language (read www.prism.gatech.edu/~gte855q/CsharpVsJava.html ).
    Myth #3: C# is for developing Web services only.
    Most definitely not, and I have heard this one retorted back to me on a number of occasions. Ironically, this is the one area that could really hurt Java Ð on the client. As you know, Java has not made any significant headway in this space due mainly to its awfully slow Swing implementation. While the recent release of JDK1.4 has brought significant performance gains, it's still nowhere near the speed of its native Windows applications with respect to fast, snappy responses (although it must be said, the speed of a Swing application on a Mac OS-X does show what could be achieved).
    C# is the new building block for Windows applications, the next VB! And we know how many applications popped up when VB hit the market (read www.c-sharpcorner.com/WinForms.asp ).
    Okay, how many of you think I've abandoned all hope for Java and have gone to the dark side? I suspect some of you are questioning my loyalties at this precise moment, wondering if I'm fit to occupy my role as EIC. Well, don't panic, I'm merely being a realist and looking at it from all angles. You'd be the first ones to complain if I buried my head in the sand and just ignored the threat. We have to look at this together and come up with a strategy that will enable us to effectively take on C#. We'll be getting a lot of heat from all over and we need to be armed with the information and prepared to go back to the drawing board and reeducate the masses. Sadly, they are being led a merry dance by Pied Piper Gates.
    Allow me to cite you an example of such blind ignorance and if this doesn't scare you, then I don't know what will. I was recently involved with the Scottish government, discussing technology and what have you, where naturally the topic of Microsoft was high on the agenda. Excusing the fact that these people took a certain pride in believing they knew what was going on and loved name-dropping, the phrase that caught me off guard was the following: "Java? No one is doing that now. Microsoft is no longer supporting it."
    Wow! Talk about a major miscommunication.
    And this from someone who controls budgets for the technology sector in Scotland. Ironically, I believe he really thinks he has his finger on the pulse of technology. It's sheer ignorance like this that scares me the most. Microsoft has successfully planted and nurtured the seed in people's heads that just because it isn't supporting Java in Windows XP, Java is dead. I have to admit I was taken aback and quite flabbergasted when I heard that retort. I really didn't know where to go with that. So much background information was obviously missing that I wasn't too sure if I would come over as patronizing and whether, ultimately, they would understand.
    Sadly, this is not an isolated incident. Ever since I started writing about this topic in my editorials, I've been hearing stories from you regarding similar misconceptions and it scares me. We have a beautiful language here in Java; it has achieved industry-wide support and is pushing forward with great velocity. What can we do to support it?
    You do realize we need an anthem. All great causes have an anthem. Something for us to get behind and sing!!! Suggestions gratefully received. We need a Java song!
    Until next month…更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • windows xp不支持java又如何?除非windows xp能够在服务器市场上打败unix
      • windows XP 是应该是客户端的产品吧. 初学者总是要犯一些幼稚的错误.如果是找工作的interview,凭这句话雇主就会废掉你了.
        最近有几次interview,很多人就这样一下子被淘汰了.
        • 哥们儿,我知道的XP最多到professional版本。为什么你的老板要fail掉我?
          • 老板可能是想让你谈谈eXtreme Programming (XP),你给理解成winXP乐。Just a wild guess.
        • XP有服务器版,开发中,但是alpha版早就出来了。
          • 谢谢!
          • 旁观者按:alpha指开发商内部测试。
            • 是啊是啊,我是指“流窜”出来的。
          • 不, 服务器版叫 2002Server, 2002 Adavanced Server ..............
          • 叫.Net Enterprise Server 已经出到Beta3了。我现在手边就有。
      • 呵呵!别不以为然。我也是JAVA一员,我也在学C#,IT这玩意,吃不得老本。不进则退。世界变化是很快的。
        • 我基本是站在Microsoft阵营的。但IBM, Orcl, Beas, Sunw。。这些公司会什么都不做吗?
          • 所以说,要善于学习,互相取长补短。不要用封闭的眼光的对待新生事物。 要记住:长江后浪推前浪,现在这个时代是英雄倍出的时代。 不好意思,楼上的那位可能是这里的“班主”,希望他的刀别太钝了,磨磨 亮,到该出手时出手!
      • MS vs. Anti-MS打了20多年了,谁败得了谁呀?厂商们不就是一块挣钱嘛。
      • 其实,谁赢谁输又有什么关系呢?
        干了十几年的程序员,在国内从程序员爬到了设计师,来了之后,又从程序员干起。开发语言变了又变,永远也别想停。我们做程序员最终还是瞄着设计师的。 其实很多中国程序员都相当优秀。问题在于我们的语言沟通能力有差距,不过就我感觉,有几年时间完全可以达到设计师的语言能力。所以我觉得在学新技术的同时,应该多注意自己的语言沟通能力。 通过几年的磨练,谁说咱中国人不能领着洋人干活?
        • 确实如此
        • 十分赞成您的观点。善于总结、善于学习的人在那个社会都不用怕。 管他JAVA还是C#!
    • 我不认为微软会打败JAVA联盟。
      。NET这末一套技术没有5年不会成熟。各位注意到没有,。NET的技术
      核心CLR还在贝塔版本,别忘了,它可是一切的基石。
      多恐怖,核心还在测试,你能指望其上的应用,SERVICE和开发工具能稳定的运作?
      将来的天下是LINUX,是OPEN SOURCE,IBM以后的所用软件都至少有
      两套版本, 一是LINUX,一是WINDOWS。微软面临巨大挑战。
      另外,微软的PASSPORT SERVICE也会使很多大公司望而却步。
      • CLR还是beta测试---这条消息你是从哪个链接得到的?能不能贴出来让我长长见识?
        • 说话别刻薄,去年底看的文章,说CLR1.0在最后测试,不过忘了出处,为再次确认,留览了一下微软的WEBSITE
          http://gotdotnet.com/team/clr/about_clr.aspx

          There are currently over 15 compilers being built by Microsoft and other companies that produce code that will execute in the CLR.

          请问很多CLR Compiler 还在写,你能说CLR 成熟了吗?顺便说一下,COMPILER只是CLR一部分,它的Infrastructure 相信还在不停的修改。

          CLR不是神末新鲜的玩意儿,JRE都发展到1.4了,稳定性肯定不是
          CLR可比的。
          • 人家两个厂商打的热闹,程序员着什么急呢?能学就都学呗,不能都学就学精一样呗。干嘛非得弄得跟维护信仰似的。