Transaction determines the term structure of the yield curve, and from the term structure you can derived implied forward interest rate. From the implied forward interest rate vs. current rate you can determine the probability of an interest rate change.
-jeffrey815(Smartiecat);
4-2{123}(#16033042@0)
The whole thing is mathematics based on market transaction price. This is different than prediction provided by economists.
Yes. The probability is a market implied probability at that point in time only. 越接近议息的日子,这个implied probability就越准确。在议息前夕,准确率能达到100%(Fed一般也不喜欢surprise the market)。离那日子越远,越不准确,因为market有太多的variables。
-jeffrey815(Smartiecat);
4-2(#16033152@0)
Yes. There are two types of forecast. One type is implied by the market. Another type is survey (the type you refer to). However, the market one is more updated and broad for obvious reason.
-jeffrey815(Smartiecat);
4-3{99}(#16034357@0)
You can't survey the financial institutions everyday and you can't include all market participants.