有些人说话太冲，大家还是应该以讨论为主，熊市输钱没有人好受，但是愿赌服输，丢了人品就更没意思了。 -canewbie(yumen) @枫下论坛 The Rolia Forum

有些人说话太冲，大家还是应该以讨论为主，熊市输钱没有人好受，但是愿赌服输，丢了人品就更没意思了。 -canewbie(yumen); 2008-2-18 (#22904@43)

A few guys here are extremely confident in their judgments. Let's see in 6 months if they are right or not. I believe we must trade on what we see, not what we think or believe in. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2008-2-18 (#22921@43)

we must trade on what we see, not what we think or believe in. NOD NOD. -gszy(灌水专用); 2008-2-18 (#22923@43)

agree. 但what we see具体指什么呢？ -toml(nono); 2008-2-18 {430} (#22938@43)
what we see具体指什么呢？昨天或5分钟之前的曲线，量价比还是公司管理层能力还是公司历史财报还是行业的趋势或经济的趋势还是仅仅是某个人的说法？需要see的，对作长期或短期的交易者来说肯定不同。after see, 才会有think和believe, 然后也只有see的结果至少使自己believe in, 才可能开始操作。

并且，别人所说在自己believe in之前，仅仅是另一个opinion或option,
讨论的目的就在于此，多有一些思路，
只有自己believe in后，才变成自己操作的依据。

Market Action. Let's take an example. FED cut rates a few weeks ago. Financial stocks rallied up in revenge. Although we know the rate cut cannot solve the credit crunch problem, we should have joined the rally (Of course it was over now). -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2008-2-18 {537} (#22939@43)
If you strongly believe FED rate cuts cannot solve the problem, you would have sat on the bench and missed a big profit. Here are something I can list

1. BSC rallied from low 70 to low 90
2. WM rallied from 14 to $22
3. FNM rallied from 30 to 40

Now all of us believes that housing will drag down US economy. Have you noticed that the techincals of housing stock have improved a lot recently? TOL, ZBH, ... all of them have broke its two year down trend. I dare not say it is bottom now, but it is worthwhile to have a look.

呵呵，不好意思，我把你说的believe的含义搞错了，你是说believe指的是对经济的看法，与股市无关。而我却总是让believe跟股市操作保持一致，只有我根据数据或消息分析后believe in sth, 才会基于此进行操作。 -toml(nono); 2008-2-18 (#22941@43)

There are a lot of economic indicators there. They are never self-consistent with each other. At different time, the Wall Street can explain the data according to their mindset. 实心的孩子都被哄的当真. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2008-2-18 (#22943@43)

没错。我觉得浆糊兄的做法是方向，逐渐建立系统，让诚实的系统和数据来校正自己的胡思乱想，从而不要轻易相信别人的说法或自己一时的冲动所想。任何想法都可以讨论，但任何具体操作前，先用自己的系统和其中规则检查一遍，如通不过就不操作，而不断改进系统是一个长期的事。 -toml(nono); 2008-2-18 (#22944@43)

what we see不单可以是经济形势数据，照样可以小到个股上。比如史玉柱说他要把GA做到50，OK，他有一大批FOLLOWERS，开盘18上啊，果真往上了，到了20多了，捂着，大家都相信老史这次玩真的了。 -gszy(灌水专用); 2008-2-18 {550} (#22946@43)
好了，GA掉头了，回到20以下了，你还有利润，走不走？要不要BELIEVE IN老史，要不要BELIEVE IN GA？图形破位了，跌破18了，老史的GA还是那个50的GA吗？你是相信你所看见的还是相信那些分析师，做报表的人给你勾勒的图画？再犹豫？OK，破15，这个时候你在做什么了？OK，我去找原因，啊呀发现征途的在线人数已经TOP了 BALA BALA，找出一堆让自己恐慌的东东。割吧，你看见的没错。你还是个理智的投资者或者TRADER，有的死不相信的，我就信老史了，向下补仓，18补， 15补， 12补， 10块补。。。。，也许有一天它是会上去，1年，2年？哈哈，万一搞成又一个NINE呢？不可能？？ NEVER SAY NEVER, LOL

Two years ago, a lot of people here were piled into Wendy's (WEN). After some calculations as solid as 1+1=2, we concluded WEN was a really good bet because it was spinnig off TIM Horton. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2008-2-18 {440} (#22951@43)
We even mocked at the Americans, saying their math is so poor...

On the day TIM Horton went into IPO, it opened high and began to drop immediately. WEN opened a new high and reversed at the same time. CarelessWhipser held a lot of WEN calls and he cut the loss very quickly....

I don't say more about the following story. At that moment, would you like to continue to believe your fundamental analyses on Wendy's and Tim Horton?

老五批评的对。即使FA支持的再好，但风险总是可能发生，在风险发生的事实迹象产生后，应该依据新的事实调整策略而不是继续坚持原来的分析。 -toml(nono); 2008-2-18 {258} (#22953@43)
比如灌水兄的例子，老史说要上50，还真是上到了30，并且还在继续上涨，结果突然老史出意外决定出家当和尚了，基于这个新的事实，必须调整操作，哈哈
但在新的迹象变得明了之前，还是应该坚持原来的分析吧。

我还有一个疑问，就是巴老谈过他怎么cut loss么，很像学习他的策略

Buffett does not trade much. He is an investor, and we are speculators. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2008-2-18 (#22955@43)

哈哈，灌水兄你这个例子真是形象，你说的believe指的是老史的说法，而see指的是看到的已发生的事实 - 历史曲线。 -toml(nono); 2008-2-18 {226} (#22952@43)
绝对没错，一定要让数据说话，历史曲线，历史财报，经济数据，甚至管理层的历史表现，依trade的长期或短期都可能是see的对象，而believe却是不要轻信别人的说法甚至自己的冲动所想，基于事实自己才能believe，以此作操作的依据才不容易犯错误。
我现在对believe和see的差别有点理解了，believe是心中预期，虽然可能是基于历史但仍是未发生的预期，see是已发生的事实，当新的事实不再支持自己的预期时，就要根据事实调整预期，绝不该固执的坚持预期而忽略已发生的事实。没错吧 -toml(nono); 2008-2-18 (#22956@43)

对唐僧是比较没办法。 -zvwong(_); 2008-2-18 (#22924@43)

It's useless to debate with your peer traders in the market. All of us are only as good as our last trade(Karen Cramer's words). It does not hurt to give a few examples here -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2008-2-18 {376} (#22926@43)
1. Drunkenmiller (Soros's heir) completely longed in equities before 1987 crash

2. Jim Cramer was trapped in S & L stocks in LMCT crisis and he defined the buttom

3. Steinhardt (one of Market Wizards) capitulated in the bottom of 1087 crash

4. Bill MIller (who beat SP for 11 years) was far behind SP 500 last year and 1/3 0f his investors withdrew this year

Great words: All of us are only as good as our last trade -toml(nono); 2008-2-18 (#22934@43)
it's said buy when Cramer says sell, sell when craner says buy? -interview(intervieweree); 2008-2-18 (#22947@43)

en, so if we see nothing, we do nothing. right? -once(chocolate); 2008-2-18 (#22925@43)

Nope, even in the current choppy market, you can still make money. On the option expiration day, a lot of stocks are locked at some strike and does not move. We can still make money in that case. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2008-2-18 (#22928@43)
Sometimes, waiting is part of trading. Before the release of some economic data or rate decision, a lot of guys just wait -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2008-2-18 (#22929@43)

有些人说话太冲，大家还是应该以讨论为主，熊市输钱没有人好受，但是愿赌服输，丢了人品就更没意思了。

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