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Crow's Mouth(1): Do you believe in the technical analysis?

There is nothing for sure in the market. That's why we need to do risk management.

I know a lot of people dislike Jim Cramer. But I like him. The reason is simple: He knows about making money than I do.

Let's share share one of his short stories.

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Chart people spot many tops; in fact, they spot more tops than there are. That's just not valuable to me. In fact, one of the bigget mistakes I ever had in my career was to be short Genentech based upon a classic top formation, which, a prominent technician told me, ninety-nine times out of hundred produced a significant decline. I got my face handed to me when, the next week, Genentech got a homongous takeover bid! I had to buy the stock back up about 70%. As I hung up on the technician after cussing him out of the hot tip, he was squealing, "But the chart says it should go down!" To heck with the chart!
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • Crow's Mouth(1): Do you believe in the technical analysis? Crow's Mouth(1): Do you believe in the technical analysis?
    There is nothing for sure in the market. That's why we need to do risk management.

    I know a lot of people dislike Jim Cramer. But I like him. The reason is simple: He knows about making money than I do.

    Let's share share one of his short stories.

    ---------------------------------------------------
    Chart people spot many tops; in fact, they spot more tops than there are. That's just not valuable to me. In fact, one of the bigget mistakes I ever had in my career was to be short Genentech based upon a classic top formation, which, a prominent technician told me, ninety-nine times out of hundred produced a significant decline. I got my face handed to me when, the next week, Genentech got a homongous takeover bid! I had to buy the stock back up about 70%. As I hung up on the technician after cussing him out of the hot tip, he was squealing, "But the chart says it should go down!" To heck with the chart!
    • It just means the one percent scenario happened, and the market regulator did an excellent job at avoidng asymetric information.
    • 这个有道理,决定股价的最终是FA,中文网站太迷信TA,不是突破了resistance再买,就是跌破了support就卖.英文网站则会建议等股价便宜了再买.RIM就是一个例子,thestreet前几天就说等跌到100就买入,这种说法在中文论坛是不受欢迎的.
      • 有道理。
      • 我感觉价值决定价格完全没错,但如果你作短线,投机是主要因素,TA能帮助你获得和确定很多信息,趋势和具体的出入价位,等等,正准备好好花时间学习一下。
      • 流行的TA绝对是糊弄散户的东西。以前没有计算机这些东西还能糊弄,有计算机之后这些都是完全能够用计算机验证的东西。验证的结果如何?看看这本书......
        • 推荐一个帖子啊。帖子中的几个链接也建议大家点进去看一下。主要是对Efficient Market Hypothesis的讨论,水平很高。