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If oil rebounce from 40$, yes. If Oil crashes under 40$, no. The previous low of TSX TTEN has priced in oil 40$. But if oil breaks down 40$ to 35$, then TSX TTEN may suffer another 5%~7% crash.

it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论)
(#61318@43)
Last Updated: 2008-12-6
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  • 刚才大致看了看heu.to 感觉短线可为，听听大家的意见 -antistock(sleepingcat); 2008-12-6 (#61310@43)
    • If oil rebounce from 40$, yes. If Oil crashes under 40$, no. The previous low of TSX TTEN has priced in oil 40$. But if oil breaks down 40$ to 35$, then TSX TTEN may suffer another 5%~7% crash. -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-6 (#61318@43)
      • 一年内，觉得40其实也不高了，当然这一路下来总会过跌，35以下我考虑进点 -is4life(随波逐流); 2008-12-6 (#61321@43)
      • Oil is going to reverse the trend and rebound from 40$ next week. -changfa(wavefighter); 2008-12-6 {261} (#61323@43)
        Oil is going to reverse the trend and rebound from 40$ next week. 1). OPEC said on weekend "A consensus has formed for a significant reduction of production levels". 2). $15 billion in loans to three auto-companies is also sort of good news for oil rebounce.
        • "$15 billion in loans to three auto-companies is also sort of good news for oil rebounce" -- not really. This means the big 3 is too big to fail but in the same time, the problem is too big to fix. So that is why only 15B -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-6 (#61324@43)
          • 就是, 15B救得了谁呀, 所以周末15B通过, 周一大跌 :-) -2yue(二月莺飞); 2008-12-6 (#61329@43)
            • "GM, Chrysler Bankruptcy Financing Would Be Double Bailout Loans" -2yue(二月莺飞); 2008-12-6 (#61362@43)
        • Today down more than 2 bulks -is4life(随波逐流); 2008-12-6 (#61326@43)
          • No trading today. Where did you see that? -changfa(wavefighter); 2008-12-6 (#61330@43)
            • no, 7 days a week. -is4life(随波逐流); 2008-12-6 (#61332@43)
              • You are wrong. That was yesterday's price. -changfa(wavefighter); 2008-12-6 (#61335@43)
        • 另外我们要反向思维一下。其实大家都看到了OPEC要减产，但是石油就是不涨。就像当初OPEC增产，但是石油就是不降一样。所以，我想，现在的石油SHORT，是当时的LONG石油的那些幕后推手。 -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-6 {365} (#61333@43)
          他们当时逼迫多少SHORTS COVER。每次OPEC增产后，石油价格不降反升，让多少SHORTS的希望破灭。

          现在，是不是也是同样。强大的SHORTS，全力打压LONG。OPEC其实也控制不了石油价格。但是，有这么个希望，很多人就去LONG。结果，OPEC希望落空，OE日再落空。石油跌倒35下，逼迫LONG者STOP LOSS。那个时候，石油就开始慢慢反弹了。

          石油市场，是被严重操纵的。我们只是不知道背后的故事吧了。
          • I agree with you. But a short rebounce is very likely. Oil down 7 days already. Oil is just like stocks. There should be a rebounce during down trend. -changfa(wavefighter); 2008-12-6 (#61337@43)
    • 下周可能出现利好的一些情况：1，大盘向上。石油和黄金现在与大盘正相关，如果大盘有短期反弹，可以支持石油黄金。2，减息的预期。3，opec的减产的预期。4，美指有乏力的迹象。 -weichen2005(微尘); 2008-12-6 (#61345@43)
      • 出了HGU，HOU再等等. -weichen2005(重在参和); 2008-12-8 (#61542@43)
    • HEU.to not hou.to -antistock(sleepingcat); 2008-12-6 (#61349@43)

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