×

Loading...

just my own 2 cents; I will buy it when it up at least 20% from bottom; see inside why I would do so;

samqyang (Kingkong)
本文发表在 rolia.net/zh 相约加拿大网上社区枫下论坛
looks strange, but what I learned from US market is 20% up is nothing if it's really pass the historical bottom;

Reason 1:
Nature GAS price down from last July, 2008 (see chart at http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NG/W), down already ~14 months; and yes, strangely, it didn't even bounce in last whole winter;

most of people believes that the winter cold should push the price up, which I now doubt it;
but I may wrong;

Reason 2:
use City (C) as example; down from around 50$ start last Jan, 2008; and if you buy it at 25$, half price, you know it's wrong; 12.5$ still wrong; 6.25$ wrong, 3.125 wrong 1.75625 wrong
96 cents finally

do you know my point? you will not know how low it can go untill it's bounce back;

you can buy and hold GAS.TO now, but nobody can tell your how many percent you may lose before it finally go upward trends; if you have guts and hold it, then go ahead; but most people can't abide even 20% off their purchase price;

I normally buy stocks in upward trends clearly; due to I knew if I am not that greedy, e.g. 50% gain for example; I will usually be safe and sound when do the upward trends;
it can go down like C 50/1 = 50,00%, I should have an easy chance if I only take 50% of gain;

Reason 3:
GAS.TO steal your money by the way;

nature gas price from Jul, 2008 (13.605 high) to today (1 Sep, 2009) (2.75 low) lost
13.605/2.75 ~= 5 times; but this GAS.TO from Jul 2008 (~32 CAD/share high) to today's close 4.17 , that is 32/4.17 ~= 7.7 times;

so, somebody is steal the money here; who, the fund manager; why, cost, comission, bla, bla; any cost will be on you;

in simple words, don't expect it will go back to 32$ even if the nature gas(back to the peak price again, but you should see double at least if the price go up 3 times;

I am still waiting, searching the right stock to hold though I knew the bottom of the NS almost there; will keep posted when I am in;

just my own 2 cents, please think and research and decide on your own
更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛. 网址: rolia.net/zh
(#103298@43)
2009-9-2
Reply
Share Online by QR Code
Page address has been copied.
To share, click to copy page address.