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My own 2 cents: FRE, FNM;

samqyang (Kingkong)
本文发表在 rolia.net/zh 相约加拿大网上社区枫下论坛
these 2 stocks have unique futures due to they are government controled;
it's more like gamble stocks rather than investment stocks;

meaning:
1) they can go down to 0$ or go up to above 10$, it all depends on eventiually how goverment handle them (some say next Feb, they will be splited, converted, whatever), the uncentainty for sure lead to the exterme prices of these 2 in the futures;
I am not that good at gamble, though last few weeks my small amount of them bring me 300% profit on my very limited personal gamble fund;

2) they are good stocks to play in very short term; but hard to predict the price; any news can make them creazy on either direction;
I knew BAC will reach 50$ in next few years from current <18$ and I can hold it and sleep sound over night; but not for these 2;

anyway, bigger risk may lead you to bigger gain but too potentially lead you to bigger loss, even total loss possible;

there future could be (just from what I can see, may very limited):
1) restructured, splited, converted to different entities (spin off the bad assets from those good ones), stock price may go 0 for bad and good up to none upper limit (if still have common share)
2) government owned not only in prefered shares but also common shares (like City (C) did)
that will increase the stability of the common share price, may eventiually lead to very high price;
(that's what I see C's future, though size increase, but still can go up, due to no other boat is safer than the one that has Gov sitting right beside you)
3) company back to independent (due to return of the TARP money when the Real-Estate tide turns)
very unlikely, due to already controlled by gov at certain level;
but anyway, the common share price will rocket up to any price possible if this can be true;
4) complete wipe-off of common shares for whatever reason, nobody want to see this, but it's on gov's call;
and you know the result if this happen;

Summary:
play with it base on your risk tolerant capacity; gamblers do big, investers go small;
Long term negative possibility 70% , positive 30%; due to usually in stock market very rare all money that lost on it can return from the same stock;

<DISCLAIM: Just my own opinion, make mind yourself>
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(#103965@43)
2009-9-7 -04:00
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