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as you said we already missed the best in time for GS and MS, my post is base on current fact; including current marekt situation, stock price, people's pychological status;

samqyang (Kingkong)
本文发表在 rolia.net/zh 相约加拿大网上社区枫下论坛
I don't have proof and I neither don't want to convince people what to do or what to hold;
due to everybody is smart and when they make decision they definitely pick up the one they think is the best;

but my vision is very simple;
for financial institutions, crsis lead to the samll banks/investment firms die out ( I believe you already see that from news, just last Friday, 3 other small banks fail, cost FDIC 2.7B bla bla ...), people may see this is bad news to financials, I see this is a very good news to those super careers;

smalls die out so the bigs will shine and share the whole market again and with less competitions;

including your GS, I don't doubt it futures; but my own idea is buy something really cheap and worth to hold; GS if as your said go to 500$ , that could become a reality but first it has to reach its historical high; which is around 250 and now it's 174$ , I would not hold it now, probably will buy it when it go above its historical high;

I am greedy too, I need something can grow 5 to 10 times but not something only 2 to 3 times;
I found a lot of them and share a quite a few, the only thing left if for you to decide whether you want to be a day trader and long term investor;

meantime, for any current stock, if it can go above it's historical high, it has to be outstanding; GS may be the one, but I don't have ability to filter them out, and I will go for cheaper ones that I see has huge potentials;

anyway, don't only focus on BAC and C that I mentioned, there are tons of good stocks worth holding; if you disagree with me, that's fine; let wait and see; hopefully, your GS eventiually go to 500$ and my BAC go above 60 ; (as I already said in other post I am not quite a C fans)

but please just close door and think silently, why people would like to hold C at 50$ per share but don't dare to hold it now at 4$ ;

the MM thoroughly understand the common peoples' psychological weakness, that is greedy and fear; from what I can see know, the only thing for MM to do is to let common people fear and think everything is still too expensive to hold;

last point, I listen to no analyst, I don't even bother to see their publishes;
if you and me can't control the analyst, I believe you know who can control them; the MM with billions of $ can; analyst speak not for truth but for money they earned; I don't blame on them, the system make them so; they just can't tell you (or common poeple like us the truth), due to the stock market really not a place that majority of common poeple can gain;

for me, the whole market is so complex but meantime very simple; regardless MM use whatever means (including government agencys, medias, website, news) try to make common people buy at high or sell at low; as long as you can buy at low and hold with no fear, sell at high with no greedy; you can gain;

I see now market just too low; MM to push it up is way easier to make it down, plus even O8M US govenment want it high; so don't worry when you hold the right thing;

before 9th, March, 2009, for 2 years, almost always wrong when buy and hold anything; too, after that, short or empty should almost always wrong;
please take this 100 year once opportunity; don't miss it; wish we all win;

besides, I am an opportunist too, few days ago, I posted and ask who can help on Natural GAS stocks, and thanks for 木头。空.满.空 suggest me DPTR; it matches to my criteria, and I didn't think more and bought some, and now I have them doubled (actually already out half, and got another half shares for free, and I will hold them for next 2 years, and sell it whnever it reachs 5 times my in price, it will in 2 years, you ask me why, I think I knew but don't know how to share, please abide me wait if eventiually it's up there 5 times then proof my thought is right then I will explain to the forum, otherwise, just another misleading useless personal opinion)

BTW, I replyed and thanks 木头。空.满.空 for 3 times due to you know that DPTR doubled in 3 days after I bought it in the morning; and I almost out when it up to 50% in one day, but I told myself, nowdays due to so many people want a pull back then greedy must not a sin now; I should hold it; and the result is clearly right;

I will hold my DPTR for next few years, I just can't throw a stock out when it's creasy at the floor price; it go up must be a reason; MM don't push a stock rocket high if they themself not confident with it; they are smart than me and they already done the analysis for me;

I select stocks with no certian rules, and usually conbine its 1) industry future potentials (that's why I like BA, due to no other competiter big/grow enough to peek it's market so far except Air Bus, and I will change if there is on surface on the market)
2) select stock by its main product price DPTR is the one due to Natural GAS just too low to miss it; (though I don't know where is the final N gas price before it up, possibiltiy to long to win is way bigger than now do short on natural gas 13.7$/Unit last July, now is 2.9$/Unit, may go down to 2.4$ or lower, but very soon)
3) select sotck by its future potentials; BAC is the one, I may wrong; but historically proved that the biggest winner usually are those who merge/eat other companies alive ones; winner takes all, loser already died;
too, a lot of other aspects I consider, e.g can't be too small and better be the major players in their section/industry, can't be too high or too stable like JNJ (Johnson & Johnson ), it's good but 5 years high at 72 $ and now already 60.42$ last close, not my favourite; just don't have too much space to go; historicall high is difficult to break unless it has new shining point;
F (ford) I would not buy regadless how analyst sugget buy buy buy last few weeks and upgrade it; I see US auto market no potentials at all unless they show me some firm proof (automakers, plus their greedy union, just not my interest) ;

anyway, the altermate goal is to gain or at least hope to gain once I hold it; so I always think twice on my selections; can I hold them overnight and sleep sound and getting happier when times pass by; so far they are good;

one last thing, in stock market, you can't do anything when you think you are accurate and 100% confirmed; e.g I don't think I can get all the <fact> I want ( I just not at that level to have those real facts) so, I have to admit that I do stock follow below 2 simple rules
1) react on current so called fact I have; Yesterday right choice may prove today is wrong, if things change to the way I don't like , then dump it;
2) what is the possibility now; ~62 $ is AIG high peak price, now it's ~2 $
62-2/62 ~ 97% , so very simple, hold it should have a bigger chance of winning;
just a example, due to other uncertainty make me think AIG so far is best for short term gamble but not good for long term investing; (but, if fact changed when time pass by, I too may change on the view of AIG if I see good sign on it)

my own 2 cnets, please make your mind your own;
all the best to all my frinends here;
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(#104641@43)
2009-9-13
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