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just my 2 cents; just not a C fan from day 1; C probably can hardly beat the index up percent in next year or two; see my analysis inside;

samqyang (Kingkong)
本文发表在 rolia.net/zh 相约加拿大网上社区枫下论坛
I knew quite a few people really love C due to it down from 59$ and today on 4$ something;

but below fact if you can listen, you would have to agree with me:

1) a huge company like C is a pure loser in this Financial crisis, except big write-off and borrowed tons of money from big Sam uncle, it getting weaker by selling it sections, department;
failed to get WM when beat with JPM, failed to get Vokovia bank when beat with WFC

meantime the company "Growed" 3 times when gov convert the prefered share to common share; few days ago, gov want to sell it 7.7B shares of City (that is 33% of it common share)

that mean City at 22B common share time today's price 4.65 ~= 100B US$, I even doubt does City really worth even this amount today;

2) it always the truth the big company stock usually very hard to gain unless it has great potentials and growing power, but City
a) common share "grows", but company actually shrink
b) Gov try to sell it's 7.7B share, that for sure anytime will be short term very negative to it's common price if out real; and long term maybe a good news;
c) City said will issue another 5B shares if this is true, that means afer suck that much money from sam, it still has captial problem; otherwise, why issue new shares; if it is true, I can't see this a positive news to it stock price;
d) City said to be reverse split, that never a good sign in any stock market for a single stock;
AIG dropped anther 75% when reverse split at june at 1:20 price down from ~28 around to worst ~ 6.6$ after reverse split become a fact;

3) regardless what, a huge compnay like city will for sure hardly even beat the index;
how many times the top 5 our banks (bank of china, Gong1Shang1Yin2Hang2) go up in ShangHai stock exchange even at the 2008 peak index 6000 points;

No money big enough to Chao3 (manipulate) C and I too didn't see great potentials on it;

untill all above doubts realized, cleared and gone, I don't think C can rocket up from long term investment perspective;

Potential grows is the key to any stock's future price; if grows can't be securied, price won't go crazy;

sorry, no offense to C fans; just my own 2 cents; YMYD;
this and next year, you can easily pick up some stocks grow 5 times (you can see my other post listed 5 times stocks, they averagly go up 15% in last 2 weeks ) , don't because holding C and waste that opportunity;

even today, I still think current price C is expensive than BAC though one is around 4$ and one is around 17$, we will see that in next few years to come;
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(#106161@43)
2009-9-22 -04:00
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