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be careful of the bricks, looks this forum already taken full control by bears; with last 3 days triumph, seems everybody now is in bearsh mood and not that many of us dare to hold on anything;

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  • 11月死皮下一个梯云纵上看点位是: 1158.76 (ZT author蓉儿)
    先转发一个老帖子,给大家看看,讨论一下。 11月死皮下一个梯云纵上看点位是: 1158.76 本帖最后由 蓉儿 于 2009-9-20 15:20 编辑 11月死皮将到达本次上升浪的终结点 1158.76(或者简单说是: 1160 ) 思路如下: 自从大盘从三月九号反弹一来,UPTREND 势如破竹,熊熊们进行的最大一次反击是从6月11号到7月8号,由于7月8号没有收在BB下沿,奠定了熊熊的反扑彻底失败同时也代表了党中央的决心,代表了 UPTREND 的决心。8月7号以后,牛派一路梯云纵北上,图中看来,两个粗白线自大底反弹以来所形成巨大的 RISING WEDGE 一直未得到向下的突破,使得无数的熊熊赴汤蹈火在死不辞,都壮烈了。 而大盘却一路北上,并在9月16号成功突破 RISING WEDGE 上沿,熟知 TA 的高手都应该知道这个 RISING WEDGE 是个 BEARISH TRIANGLE,而9月16号的突破代表了一个划时代的超级强烈信号,这个不是 TA 也不是 FA 的力量,是o8的力量。也是我们桃花岛的预定目标,死皮达到桃花岛的预定目标1066~1068,并且形成了新的两条粗黄线的比较宽的震荡上行通道。 下个星期死皮会有回测白色 RISING WEDGE 上沿的需要,如果跌破白色上沿支撑,死皮在此的点位大概是 1060 ,死皮将在 1060 附近重新反弹,有些人认为就此会趁机砸下去到达 1030 附近,我认为不大可能,1060 就会出现像当初 1000 那样,使得死皮反复测试反复支撑并最终站稳向上突破,这个是一个小的回测。 然后,记得吗?我曾经说过 9月 10月 11月的月线都将是 HH HL ,很多人对此产生质疑说不可能,我现在告诉你们,不但是可能的,还是必须的,因为众多的信息都告诉我们,不但可能而且必须,死皮下一个梯云纵上看点位是: 1158.76 到达 1066~1068 本来我们的最早的预测是在此必有回调,但是,由于在时间上进行了拖延,时间换空间,在此熊熊已经无力进行大反扑了,由于从 2007年10月11号延伸下来的下降趋势线图中褐色线是在 1130,而 1130 正好是黄色线的上沿点位。就是图图中的 黄色 A 点,所以我觉得,10月份的第三周 (从现在起,一个月以后)死皮到达 A点 1130 ,然后,经过测算, 11月死皮将到达本次上升浪的终结点 1158.76(或者简单说是: 1160 ) 然后死皮会产生一个至少三个月到半年的震荡向下回调趋势,死皮有可能在明年的上半年在 1060 ~ 1160 之间上下震荡,并在我上一张 SR 图图中(图 2 #)而最终突破 F-SR2 目前点位在 1230,而那时 F-SR2 估计已经下移到大概 点位 1160 附近了。并从新形成突破点位,形成新的真正的大牛市的到来,就像当年 2003 年下半年的大牛市的到来那样激动人心。 就让我们拭目以待吧。
    • 怪不得我今天左眼跳呢,原来是股市要涨了。。。。。。。。
      • use your atg knowledge, the game is easier for you.
        • 我还是愿意相信运气
          • No, this game is well dedfined, with consistent rules. You need a golden touch, then all yours.
            649 needs luck.
            • 我对股市的认识,来源“大时代”
    • be careful of the bricks, looks this forum already taken full control by bears; with last 3 days triumph, seems everybody now is in bearsh mood and not that many of us dare to hold on anything;
      • 哈,大家的砖头可要温柔一点,我可是转贴啊,再转贴一下,“股市会不会涨? 会的!星期一会不会涨? 不知道!持有多仓的不用担心了吧? 不一定,还要视股票而定!(比如有RIMM可能还要担心一下子)”
    • maybe, we should give it a second thought; the current US Market is different as above mentioned that quit when ShangHai stock at 6000 points, if allow different idea unless next few weeks market prove the down trend, please see inside my points;
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛1) I don't think now the US market can compare with the moment at 2008 that PRC stock market go around 6400 points time;
      simple reason as below:
      a) 6400 point at that time to China stock is historical high, but you can't say now at S&P ~1060 for US stock market is at historical high; then the risk can't be the same;
      b) in China, you only can do long (buy and hold) or empety with cash only; and the products here just so many, at any time you can do short, long, put, call, margin; my point is that US market usually very hard to go any single direction easily; last 3 days just too simple to predict to us; (whenever at the minute that I think I know the direction of US market, in next minute I am not that sure anymore); the US market always surprise common people like myself;
      will this time just simple as we discussed here as eveybody so far in this forum so convinced that next few weeks the market will pull back just as we expected; I doubt that;

      2) fundamental wise; they are still possibilities;
      1) OCT is right around the cornor, what if even we are right next week in Sep, but when OCT comes, the Banks Quarterly finicial statement just too good to cause the market go down?
      like last time, what if City got 50 cents or more proft in 3 quarter just base on whatever new accounting rules; what is the whole world believe due to that US gov didn't hike the interest rate and didn't stop the stimulus plan that printing money crazyly will eventiually drag US dollor down again;
      if US dollor keep getting weaker, the OIL, Commodities, (which present the huge percent of US market) , will have to go up price wise, then how would it be possibe to believe the US market can go down sharply;

      above just my own 2 cents, I am not a predictor, but only a fact based analysor; untill further fact make believe the down-turn (pull-back) really comes, I definitely will be very cautious but too will not be that bearish;

      YMYD, I obviously wish that the MM do as per so many folks expected here in this forum, in next few months or so, down to 8600 as per say,
      but I don't think this is just that simple; MM always one step ahead of us, and most of us will always be wrong; due to stock market is a shark eat fish/shrimp place not a fish eat shark place;

      don't want to scare all of us, just my personal thought; and wish everybody win;更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
      • I mean last time at around this year May, if you still remember, big bank/finace stocks almost jump ~30% in one day just when everybody think pull back is almost certain; WFC get surprisely good quartarly repot profit;
      • kingkong,你的英文真好啊,一下打这么多字,看了半天,你是回guyuan的8600点的那个贴吧?
        • just a second thought; due to I still can't convince myself that the market will be that simple to forsee; btw, I like the fact and always react on the fact, predict is not my strength; we will see;
          I always use the fact-think-do strategy; as per current market situation, I call it fact;
          what should I react (base on fact, trends, experience, instinct, you name it) to confirm next move then execute it; this way, I don't need to predict; so far work quite well to me;