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maybe, we should give it a second thought; the current US Market is different as above mentioned that quit when ShangHai stock at 6000 points, if allow different idea unless next few weeks market prove the down trend, please see inside my points;

samqyang (Kingkong)
本文发表在 rolia.net/zh 相约加拿大网上社区枫下论坛
1) I don't think now the US market can compare with the moment at 2008 that PRC stock market go around 6400 points time;
simple reason as below:
a) 6400 point at that time to China stock is historical high, but you can't say now at S&P ~1060 for US stock market is at historical high; then the risk can't be the same;
b) in China, you only can do long (buy and hold) or empety with cash only; and the products here just so many, at any time you can do short, long, put, call, margin; my point is that US market usually very hard to go any single direction easily; last 3 days just too simple to predict to us; (whenever at the minute that I think I know the direction of US market, in next minute I am not that sure anymore); the US market always surprise common people like myself;
will this time just simple as we discussed here as eveybody so far in this forum so convinced that next few weeks the market will pull back just as we expected; I doubt that;

2) fundamental wise; they are still possibilities;
1) OCT is right around the cornor, what if even we are right next week in Sep, but when OCT comes, the Banks Quarterly finicial statement just too good to cause the market go down?
like last time, what if City got 50 cents or more proft in 3 quarter just base on whatever new accounting rules; what is the whole world believe due to that US gov didn't hike the interest rate and didn't stop the stimulus plan that printing money crazyly will eventiually drag US dollor down again;
if US dollor keep getting weaker, the OIL, Commodities, (which present the huge percent of US market) , will have to go up price wise, then how would it be possibe to believe the US market can go down sharply;

above just my own 2 cents, I am not a predictor, but only a fact based analysor; untill further fact make believe the down-turn (pull-back) really comes, I definitely will be very cautious but too will not be that bearish;

YMYD, I obviously wish that the MM do as per so many folks expected here in this forum, in next few months or so, down to 8600 as per say,
but I don't think this is just that simple; MM always one step ahead of us, and most of us will always be wrong; due to stock market is a shark eat fish/shrimp place not a fish eat shark place;

don't want to scare all of us, just my personal thought; and wish everybody win;
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(#107137@43)
2009-9-26
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