if I am right 1) you think US real estate worth to invest from now on 2) you want to pick up something index like to reduce the individual stock risk, please see post inside;

samqyang (Kingkong)
本文发表在 rolia.net/zh 相约加拿大网上社区枫下论坛
NO, URE is not the right stock to hold even I agree with you; from now on and in next few years, US real-estate will go through bottom up and hot up trends;

1) URE 2 years high around 70$ and worst 1.78 ; simple calculation is 70/1.78 = ~39
you need to find a acceptable reason on why 39 times lost in last 2 years, if not, don't touch it;
I may have some ideas:
a) those leveraged ETFs (URE is 2X etf) are playing with risky futures/options in order to achieve, and any cost, lost will be on you;
b) those ETFs (especially 2X something) are designed for DT, depreiated over time a lot;

most US real-estate big company stock downed around 5 to 10 times in last 3 years, but it can't be 39 even doubled (10 to 20 times, if URE should match)

if you want to listen:
assuming I have 10K USD want to put on US real estate section;
I would 1) 4K split to top 5 US new home makers, their price now is at 1/4 to 1/5 of their historical high samples : LEN, PHM, DHI, KBH
2) 4K split to top 5 US R.E.I.T (real estate investment trust) stocks, their price now si at 1/5 to 1/10 of their high samples: PLD, PEI, DDR, FR
3) 2k split on below new home builders with 10times possible but little bit high risk
I call it risk fund, it may go up 10 times;

split them to as many as possible; come back to me if you can't get 3 (300%) but promise me hold them at least 2 years;

and wait for either my signal or the gurus on this forum before you entry;
due to short term wise, there is a hight possibility that the market is pulling back as so many folks expected in this forum;

let confirms that before next move, you won't lose too much; after all, short term wise, maket already up 6 months no rest, plus year end, especially the housing number won't be very good in winter;

I am trying to balance the risk as well; but definitely not 2X ETFs for long term holding;

just my own opinion, YMYD;
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2009-9-27 -04:00
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