本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛NO, URE is not the right stock to hold even I agree with you; from now on and in next few years, US real-estate will go through bottom up and hot up trends;
why;
1) URE 2 years high around 70$ and worst 1.78 ; simple calculation is 70/1.78 = ~39
you need to find a acceptable reason on why 39 times lost in last 2 years, if not, don't touch it;
I may have some ideas:
a) those leveraged ETFs (URE is 2X etf) are playing with risky futures/options in order to achieve, and any cost, lost will be on you;
b) those ETFs (especially 2X something) are designed for DT, depreiated over time a lot;
most US real-estate big company stock downed around 5 to 10 times in last 3 years, but it can't be 39 even doubled (10 to 20 times, if URE should match)
if you want to listen:
assuming I have 10K USD want to put on US real estate section;
I would 1) 4K split to top 5 US new home makers, their price now is at 1/4 to 1/5 of their historical high samples : LEN, PHM, DHI, KBH
2) 4K split to top 5 US R.E.I.T (real estate investment trust) stocks, their price now si at 1/5 to 1/10 of their high samples: PLD, PEI, DDR, FR
3) 2k split on below new home builders with 10times possible but little bit high risk
I call it risk fund, it may go up 10 times;
sampes: HOV, BZH, BEE, MPG, AHR, ABR, GKK, GRT
split them to as many as possible; come back to me if you can't get 3 (300%) but promise me hold them at least 2 years;
and wait for either my signal or the gurus on this forum before you entry;
due to short term wise, there is a hight possibility that the market is pulling back as so many folks expected in this forum;
let confirms that before next move, you won't lose too much; after all, short term wise, maket already up 6 months no rest, plus year end, especially the housing number won't be very good in winter;
I am trying to balance the risk as well; but definitely not 2X ETFs for long term holding;
just my own opinion, YMYD;更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net