本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛very optimistic and positive name (风和日丽,不再windy) here, I like it;

allow me to have just my own 2 cents on the 2 stocks you mentioned here, Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) might be among the worst stocks to hold for long run, analysis as below:

1) industry wise, they all belongs to technical section , in this section, they have to be the lead in tech to support their current price and usually you won't know them unless they already very expensive (that means too late for invest, why nobody notice apple 5 years ago when it at around price 5, because at that time Apple almost go bankrupt if not because later on saved by its famous product iPod); due to the nature of tech industry implicates a) very tough comptetion at any time b) technology changes by days, and any company regardless how big/expensive now in this section can be replaced/die out in a matter of years (Nortel and recently sharply down RIMM are the best samples, lots of them, previous Giant like Sun, 3M ... look at their hitorcial high compare to the current price)

for high tech stocks, we have a catch 22 (dead lock) situation here; you won't know them untill they are so famous and so expensive, due to out of numerus those kind of companies, how do we know which one has future cutting edge tech and will be leading in next few years? (if you know, let me know right away, I will buy)

then we noticed Google and Apple not because they have great future potentials but just because they are hot and popular now, how do we then know how long their tech can lead and last ? if it can't lead and last in future, price go down sharply ....

2) Apple (current price 185.38) almost already at it historical high, unless it can prove it has new product (rather than iPod, due to iPod power already reflected in its price), otherwise, I can't convince myself to hold it; Google looks like on up trend but still now is at 500$ already, except a search engine whatelse do they have (current Yahoo will be google's futue if they can't have something new and leading)
in simple word, you are looking at the potential growth for long term investment; if we wrong, our investment doomed; for high tech companis, it's extermely difficult to estimate its potential due to the nature of it's technology section,

for these two, their price already reflect their current leading tech power, it they can't get something new, they doomed to go down in long run;

Grab something concrete or traditional should be a better idea for long term investment, e.g commodities (oil, gas, matal, basical building material etc), food, air-craft maker like BA (Boeing), traditional big commercial Banking (BAC, ING, MS) (due to they already exists a few 100 years, they may keep existing in next few 100 years, google and apple may not exist in next 10 years) ,
big real-estate companys , big popular food industry giant etc

Long term Investment is a game to predict/foresee the potentials/growth of a company, High tech companies just not my strenth to control/predict/analyize;

if RIMM can't provide something leading and massively occupied the market like it's already known BlackBerry, for me, it's already dead; you will lost all your money if long term hold it from now on and if unfortunately I am right;更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net