I used this football metaphor on Monday morning, when the Dow Theory Letters were worried about an imminent Sell signal. See Nov. 12 column

It didn't happen. And with Tuesday's 320-point Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:

Dow Jones Industrial Average

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 Last: 13,110.05-120.96-0.91%
4:04pm 11/15/2007
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$INDU 13,110.05, -120.96, -0.9%) surge, the bulls thought they were off the hook.

Now, two down days later, they're back on the goal line again. But, for example, Dow Theory Letter's Richard Russell is quite obviously in a better mood. He wrote Thursday night: "The Dow closed 265 points above its Aug. 16 close of 12,845.78. Thus, no Dow Theory bear signal as of today's close ... I'd be surprised if tomorrow wasn't a dramatic day, but no sense jumping the gun. Time to be very conservative.

"The Dow is becoming quite oversold, and as I said still no bear market signal. The longer the time elapses without the Dow violating 12,845.78, the better than the chances that the Dow won't violate that critical level ... Will we be saved by the Dow? I've seen it happen before."

Russell does note that his Primary Trend Indicator has turned bearish. But he doesn't seem panicked by it. And, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, this indicator's record isn't that great anyway. See March 15, 2006 column

Let's take a break from this daily dervish dance. Periodically, I like to check in with Growth Fund Guide, the long-established mutual fund letter that still publishes monthly and still refuses to set up a Website. See Jan. 18 column

November's issue of Growth Fund Guide just snailed in. It leads with a serious lecture about the importance of buying value in "the early to mid-portion of super bull-markets."

Growth Fund Guide thinks gold and Asian markets, except for Japan, are in those super-bull markets. But the U.S. super-bull market peaked in early 2000.

Growth Fund Guide is also raising the possibility of what it calls a "Weimar Republic-type rise in the U.S. market."

This would mean that "the U.S. market could rise in nominal terms and look good to most investors, but the rise would probably not be enough to increase real purchasing power, especially after taxes. This has been the case with the (Dow) since its early 2000 high."

Growth Fund Guide points to financial derivatives, and what it regards as the irresponsibility of former Fed chief Alan Greenspan, as underlying problems in the economy.

Despite this gloom, Growth Fund Guide has outperformed the stock market over the past 12 months according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, up 21.17% vs. 15.06% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. Over the past 10 years, Growth Fund Guide has achieved an 8.8% annualized gain vs. 7.4% for the total return DJ-Wilshire 5000.

These are the funds currently held in Growth Fund Guide's top-performing Aggressive Portfolio: