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GOLDS: INTERMEDIATE BOTTOMING ZONE
Summary: Gold stocks have been in a corrective mode since early March when bullion peaked near $US 692.00. Seasonality for gold typically stabilizes and bottoms out through June and July, and then moves up strongly from early August into October. Intermediate momentum both for bullion and key stocks is poised to turn up from very close to current levels. We believe it is timely to begin re-accumulating the sector.
Action: Increase exposure to Golds on any near-term weakness, and become more aggressive as new buy signals are triggered by bullion and individual stocks (see examples below).
Key Pattern Types:
• Trading close to important support near 2-year uptrend lines:
Eldorado (ELD), Golden Star (GSC), Crystallex (KRY), Yamana (YRI).
• Trading near bottom of range at Q4 2006 lows:
Agnico Eagle (AEM), Centerra (CG), Gabriel (GBU), Goldcorp (G), Krystallex (KRY).
• Broken down beneath Q4 2006 lows:
Alamos (AGI), Barrick (ABX), IAM Gold (IMG)
The Ones We Like Best: Goldcorp (large-cap), Agnico and Eldorado (midcap),
Gabriel, Crystallex and Golden Star (small-cap).
-- HUI is beginning to outperform bullion over the past 3 weeks (bottom panel). This is a positive sign, and the ratio would confirm a sustainable
uptrend crossing the key level at the early-April highs.
-- Intermediate momentum will turn up this Friday on a close above 342.53.
-- Silver has outperformed gold bullion on a trend basis since mid-2005 (bottom panel). The stabilization and upturn of the silver/gold ratio over
the past few weeks increases the likelihood that intermediate sector lows are now forming.
-- Intermediate momentum is bottoming, and will turn up this Friday on a close above 13.21.
-- SLW is a unique chart in the precious metals universe.
-- We believe that a breakout to new highs above 13.75 would confirm a major new advance for the entire precious metals sector.
-- Intermediate momentum is already positive, and positive, and key support is now established at the 11.28 low set on May 30.
-- ELD is beginning to bottom at important price and trendline support near 6.00.
-- This stock has outperformed the sector since the Q4 2006 lows, and its recent stabilization as price approached support is a plus.
-- Intermediate momentum will turn up this Friday on a close above 6.82.
-- G appears to be stabilizing at long-term support near 25.00.
-- A break of the performance downtrend to the sector would now confirm the start of a sustainable rally.
-- Intermediate momentum is bottoming, and will turn up this Friday on a close above 25.69.
-- IMG broke its major uptrend line in Q1 2007.
-- Note how the relative performance to the sector started breaking down in Q 4 2006, well in advance of the price break (bottom panel).
-- Intermediate price momentum will turn up this Friday on a close above 7.88.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
GOLDS: INTERMEDIATE BOTTOMING ZONE
Summary: Gold stocks have been in a corrective mode since early March when bullion peaked near $US 692.00. Seasonality for gold typically stabilizes and bottoms out through June and July, and then moves up strongly from early August into October. Intermediate momentum both for bullion and key stocks is poised to turn up from very close to current levels. We believe it is timely to begin re-accumulating the sector.
Action: Increase exposure to Golds on any near-term weakness, and become more aggressive as new buy signals are triggered by bullion and individual stocks (see examples below).
Key Pattern Types:
• Trading close to important support near 2-year uptrend lines:
Eldorado (ELD), Golden Star (GSC), Crystallex (KRY), Yamana (YRI).
• Trading near bottom of range at Q4 2006 lows:
Agnico Eagle (AEM), Centerra (CG), Gabriel (GBU), Goldcorp (G), Krystallex (KRY).
• Broken down beneath Q4 2006 lows:
Alamos (AGI), Barrick (ABX), IAM Gold (IMG)
The Ones We Like Best: Goldcorp (large-cap), Agnico and Eldorado (midcap),
Gabriel, Crystallex and Golden Star (small-cap).
-- HUI is beginning to outperform bullion over the past 3 weeks (bottom panel). This is a positive sign, and the ratio would confirm a sustainable
uptrend crossing the key level at the early-April highs.
-- Intermediate momentum will turn up this Friday on a close above 342.53.
-- Silver has outperformed gold bullion on a trend basis since mid-2005 (bottom panel). The stabilization and upturn of the silver/gold ratio over
the past few weeks increases the likelihood that intermediate sector lows are now forming.
-- Intermediate momentum is bottoming, and will turn up this Friday on a close above 13.21.
-- SLW is a unique chart in the precious metals universe.
-- We believe that a breakout to new highs above 13.75 would confirm a major new advance for the entire precious metals sector.
-- Intermediate momentum is already positive, and positive, and key support is now established at the 11.28 low set on May 30.
-- ELD is beginning to bottom at important price and trendline support near 6.00.
-- This stock has outperformed the sector since the Q4 2006 lows, and its recent stabilization as price approached support is a plus.
-- Intermediate momentum will turn up this Friday on a close above 6.82.
-- G appears to be stabilizing at long-term support near 25.00.
-- A break of the performance downtrend to the sector would now confirm the start of a sustainable rally.
-- Intermediate momentum is bottoming, and will turn up this Friday on a close above 25.69.
-- IMG broke its major uptrend line in Q1 2007.
-- Note how the relative performance to the sector started breaking down in Q 4 2006, well in advance of the price break (bottom panel).
-- Intermediate price momentum will turn up this Friday on a close above 7.88.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net