本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Agri cultural stocks are in a bullish cycle now. You can buy ag stocks and hold them as investors do. However, you need to have a strong stomach for some pullback. Recently, MOS had been sold off from 110 to $72, POT from 155 to 90 (my numbers are not precise).
However, they recovered much faster than other stocks. If you are traders, you can make money on both sides of trade--long and short from these stocks, because they usually have large intraday volatility. Then, what do you choose?
On 01/22/2008, I short sold ag stocks because Fast Money guys told people there are a lot of money hidden in the ag stocks and they did not have a place to hide. After that, I have been constantly telling myself: Do not short these babies. Why? The trend is up, so we had better not fight agaist the trend.
Here is the deal. If you go long in ag stocks and get trapped, and if you are not really on the hill top, you have a lot of opportunities to escape. If you short sell ag stocks and do not cover at the same day, you may be completely swamped next day when the market is open. This is not kidding, becase I have ever suffered from the run-away stocks.
Having that said, I believe people can be easily get trapped in stocks such as ATV. Well, people may escape after they hold for some time. But that's self-cheating. If you hold a stock for 3 months and finally break even, that means your trading capital do not generate any profits during the past three months.
Obviously, I BELIEVE ag stocks are in a bullish cycle. But that does not guarantee I will win. Anything could happen. For instance, I am long in MOS. If MOS suddenly launch a bid for POT, I will jump off the boat no matter how painful it is. Similarly, if there is a fire breaking out in MOS's factory, what should I do? If the incidence is not severe, I may use calls to recover the loss. If the problem is really big, I have to throw in the towel.
Stocks are just some tokens for betting. A few months ago, APPL was a real bull. Now APPL are selling more iPhones and iPods, but who cares?更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
However, they recovered much faster than other stocks. If you are traders, you can make money on both sides of trade--long and short from these stocks, because they usually have large intraday volatility. Then, what do you choose?
On 01/22/2008, I short sold ag stocks because Fast Money guys told people there are a lot of money hidden in the ag stocks and they did not have a place to hide. After that, I have been constantly telling myself: Do not short these babies. Why? The trend is up, so we had better not fight agaist the trend.
Here is the deal. If you go long in ag stocks and get trapped, and if you are not really on the hill top, you have a lot of opportunities to escape. If you short sell ag stocks and do not cover at the same day, you may be completely swamped next day when the market is open. This is not kidding, becase I have ever suffered from the run-away stocks.
Having that said, I believe people can be easily get trapped in stocks such as ATV. Well, people may escape after they hold for some time. But that's self-cheating. If you hold a stock for 3 months and finally break even, that means your trading capital do not generate any profits during the past three months.
Obviously, I BELIEVE ag stocks are in a bullish cycle. But that does not guarantee I will win. Anything could happen. For instance, I am long in MOS. If MOS suddenly launch a bid for POT, I will jump off the boat no matter how painful it is. Similarly, if there is a fire breaking out in MOS's factory, what should I do? If the incidence is not severe, I may use calls to recover the loss. If the problem is really big, I have to throw in the towel.
Stocks are just some tokens for betting. A few months ago, APPL was a real bull. Now APPL are selling more iPhones and iPods, but who cares?更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net