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Growth stocks work this way. BIDU, FMCN, and EDU all have high P/E's and are volatile

wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五)
Analysts are never bullisj enough, and they are also never bearish enough. So said Jim Cramer.
(#299@43)
Last Updated: 2007-4-19
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  • anyone trade solar stock? TSL, FSLR, SOLF,JASO, which one u pick? any comments welcome. -oneshot(traderJ); 2007-4-18 (#150@43)
    • I love them, but I dare not get in because the market has been rising for 14 days. Please keep me posted when you think it's time to get in. In addition, WFR is their supplier. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-18 (#155@43)
      • I am watching everyday,and think it is best to get so some shares of supplier WFR as I don't know other supplier name....TSL price has way too much swing, roller coster ride....What do you think? -pleasure123(mini); 2007-4-19 (#297@43)
    • Some facts. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-18 {540} (#162@43)
      1. TSL has some special technology to use mano-silicon, so it has a better control of the cost.
      2. Jaso is primarily tagrgeted to the Chinese domestic market.
      3. FSLR is a US company, so it's a very crowded stock.
      4. SOLF is not wellknown.

      Wendesday, CBIC analysts downgraded SOLF and JASO. So all solar stocks were slaughtered. We don't need to worry about downgrade now. However, we need pay special attention to the earning report. IF one of them, or STP, report poor earnings or give dummy outlooks, there will be bloodsheds
      • Who is the leader in this sector worldwide? STP? -hilo(still mellow); 2007-4-19 {216} (#267@43)
        I am interested in this sector. Oil has regulatory risk and uranium can face an environmental backlash too, it’s just a matter of time. If a solar company is profitable today, it can only get better in the future.
        • It used to be STP. However, .... -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-19 {544} (#270@43)
          STP has been traded for a long time. So it's covered by more analysts and it can have more accidents when you trade it. STP has some difficulties in silicon supply.

          Recently, TSL has become a black horse. The reason is TSL has a special technology to use mono-silicon crystal. So TSL has less pressure in supply. TSL has become a momentum play. Today, it dropped $7, and I loaded 100 for $56.10. I hope I am not the bagger holder here.

          If you want to find a leader, FSLR is one. The wall street is very enthusiastic about this one.
          • thanks. let me do some digging before I come back. -hilo(still mellow); 2007-4-19 (#295@43)
          • 老五，你看上去很熟悉Solar Stock啊，今天收盘前我Load了一点JASO和SOLF，对FSLR我不敢碰，不知道为什么估值这么高？ -carelesswhisper(无心快语); 2007-4-19 (#308@43)
            • FSLR is the Street's darling. I don't know why it sports such a high P/E. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-19 {178} (#312@43)
              if you play on this one, you had better not hold it overnight. If it is downgraded overnight, you may get trapped.

              SOLF is relatively week among all the Chinese solar stocks.
              • I know SOLF is relatively weak,but the value is attractive for me. I dare not trade FSLR. -carelesswhisper(无心快语); 2007-4-19 (#315@43)
              • Reason for that: . -oneshot(traderJ); 2007-4-20 {338} (#322@43)
                1.FSLR,SOLF uses film which is less cost. TSL not sure.
                2. Comparing SOLF, FSLR got the technology to make cheaper film (almost half cost ) for solar cell
                3.FSLR is Camer's taking
                4.Others use sillicon, last 2 years, sillicon's price is soaring, silicon panels remain relatively expensive to make.
                Overall, this section is hot hot.
            • 今天都涨的很好, 大侠昨天为什么会买呀?谢谢指教. -xiaor(xiaor); 2007-4-20 (#356@43)
              • 没什么特别：1： 这个field 比较Hot。 2： 看好中国股票。 3：当天的调整基本到位。 就买了。 -carelesswhisper(无心快语); 2007-4-23 (#459@43)
          • So far my pick is STP for mid to long term. -hilo(still mellow); 2007-4-21 {861} (#361@43)
            The other three Chinese manufacturers don't look as mature in management depth and strategic planning. STP is doing a good job in locking up material and assembly vendors thanks to its more international management team.

            The film technology you mentioned, how difficult is it for STP to get it if they really need to? Since more than one company has it, doesn't seem there is a huge technical/patent hurdle there.

            The real concern is the government subsidied purchasing in Western countries might not be able to catch up with the capacity expansion in China. Then there will be a price war(might not be a bad thing to stimulate more demand long term), and STP as well as others can be hurt with the big upfront investment in their equipment.

            But Mr. Shi is a man with vision and guts, so far the rest of the pack just look like copy cats to me.
            • Agree with you. There is a load of over-enthusiam in the solar sector. Some have become mo-mo plays. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-21 {131} (#362@43)
              The problem is that the current market is at the new high. I am worrying for a sudden pullback. So what's your ideas enrty price?
              • $30-$35. -hilo(still mellow); 2007-4-21 {116} (#363@43)
                If STP can realize its projection of tripling its shipment by 2010, P/E of 50 will look like a bargain in hindsight.
                • I think we can place a stink order 30.10 or 30.20 there. It could get filled when there is panic selling -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-21 (#378@43)
          • Did some more digging, the reason that a few analysts are downgrading STP "hold" is.. -hilo(still mellow); 2007-4-21 {610} (#377@43)
            1) It acquired MSK, a Japan company of solar assembly. MSK has low margin and whether the integration will be successful is not certain;

            2) Suntech is engaging in a lot of expansions which the analyst deemed "inefficient". From other sources I read STP is building a R&D center and manufacturing facilities in a hi-tech park in Shangahi. It is also building silicon facility in Qinghai;

            3) competition will intensify.

            On the upside, recent contract with a US supplier locked in 10 year silicon supply cost much lower than the current market price.

            And the overall market will continue to grow.
            • FSLR is going to unlock 20 million shares on May 16, any negative impace on stock price, some analysts said that that action is going to shot down the stock price. -pleasure123(mini); 2007-4-26 (#549@43)
    • I am wondering as well, if we listen to the analyst reports, most of the solar stocks are overvalued....but prices kept on going up till the recent pullback.....TSL is too volatile, -pleasure123(mini); 2007-4-19 (#296@43)
      • Growth stocks work this way. BIDU, FMCN, and EDU all have high P/E's and are volatile -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-19 {94} (#299@43)
        Analysts are never bullisj enough, and they are also never bearish enough. So said Jim Cramer.
    • look at WFR, supplier for solar, today announced 1st quarter financial results, not good, stock dropping like crazy.....time to get in -pleasure123(mini); 2007-4-27 (#610@43)
    • all the solar stocks went down a lot recently, any opinion, time to get in or you think it is going further down -pleasure123(mini); 2007-5-1 (#784@43)
    • Shake out of the Solar industry is starting. This is healthy for long term investors. I bought STP at 34.6, looking to buy more around 30.5. -hilo(still mellow); 2007-6-5 (#2113@43)

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