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I am preparing to reduce my long positions gradually in next 2 weeks, the market is so bullish, seems no bear any more. Any idea?

Bull markets are born on pessimism; grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the time to sell.
~ Sir John Templeton
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  • I am preparing to reduce my long positions gradually in next 2 weeks, the market is so bullish, seems no bear any more. Any idea?
    Bull markets are born on pessimism; grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the time to sell.
    ~ Sir John Templeton
    • What would Warrent Buffet do in this scenario?
      • haha, What Would Jesus Do?
      • 他钱太多跑不掉, 只好短期套牢. 小户的优势是动作快, 大户的优势是资金和信息. 另一方面看你如何理解运用投机和投资了.
        • There is no proof that active trading will yield better outcome
          I remember someone did an exercise during MBA study, two group of students used two stategy:active trading vs buy & hold. After a period of time, active trading doesn't out-perform the buy and hold.
          The debate really go back to the tactic: which is better?Active trade with all kinds of analysis? If that is the case, which one is the best?
          • you may google and find the experimental report your mentioned (it happened in1998), go through it and see how it was done and what's the results, the title is misleading , I also believed it when I was novice.
            Year 2000 tech burst already proved simply long holding may not benefit your portfolio, long holding need involvement of your homework, monitoring and risk controlling.

            You make money until you sell your positions, you must have your exit strategy, I classify my strategy as trend following instead of active trader. There is couple of beliefs in the Street, and see how you understand them -- "bulls and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered", "the trend is your friend", "you can time the market", etc.
            • Thanks for your explanation!
              Very helpful. I like the idea of "trend follower". Exit strategy is a cool word. Never throught about it before.
              So, identifying the trend becomes the key point.