本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Q: What is your general advice for public investors in turbulent markets?
A: Most investors are not going to spend the time to be able to evaluate businesses themselves. My job is evaluating businesses. That means evaluating the management that goes with them, the economic characteristics of the business they are in, where they are likely to be in five or 10 or 20 years.
I'm a professional asset-allocator, a professional investor. Just as in other fields, you shouldn't try to compete with the pros. That doesn't mean you can't become one yourself, if you want to spend the time and effort to do it. But, fortunately, there's a perfect alternative, which basically is to buy an index fund, or the equivalent of an index fund, with very low costs, and not throw all your money in at one time. So you're diversified both in businesses and in time in which you invest. And you'll get a very decent result.
You won't get a result as [a professional investor]. And that means, you don't even think about it. If you buy a farm as an investment, do you sit there and watch the Farm Channel on television all day, as they tell you corn went up a penny or something like that? You buy the farm and figure it is a good investment over a period of time.
But in stocks, you have so much information thrown at you all the time. You have it in print, you have it on the tube, so you think you have to do all these things all the time or form opinions. The truth is, you don't have any business-forming opinions and you don't need to. All you have to do is sit there and ride a good asset over a long period of time.
The Dow Jones [Industrial] Average started the 20th century at 66 and it ended at 11,400. That is not a bad train to be on. How could anybody lose money on something that went from 66 to 11,400? Well, a lot of people lost a lot of money in stocks because they come in at the wrong time, and they get out at the wrong time, and they buy the wrong things, and they get excited, and they get greedy when others get greedy, and fearful when others get fearful.
I say you should get greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy, but that's hard for most people to do.
It is much easier to buy and buy and buy little pieces of a wonderful group of American businesses, and you'll do fine over time and you'll keep your costs low. If you try to be a little bit smarter, you'll probably end up being a lot dumber.
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其实本质就是: How could I win? 你想想你的对手都是什么背景？就是那种背景，很多人也是一年工作365天，天天10小时以上. Can you?更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
A: Most investors are not going to spend the time to be able to evaluate businesses themselves. My job is evaluating businesses. That means evaluating the management that goes with them, the economic characteristics of the business they are in, where they are likely to be in five or 10 or 20 years.
I'm a professional asset-allocator, a professional investor. Just as in other fields, you shouldn't try to compete with the pros. That doesn't mean you can't become one yourself, if you want to spend the time and effort to do it. But, fortunately, there's a perfect alternative, which basically is to buy an index fund, or the equivalent of an index fund, with very low costs, and not throw all your money in at one time. So you're diversified both in businesses and in time in which you invest. And you'll get a very decent result.
You won't get a result as [a professional investor]. And that means, you don't even think about it. If you buy a farm as an investment, do you sit there and watch the Farm Channel on television all day, as they tell you corn went up a penny or something like that? You buy the farm and figure it is a good investment over a period of time.
But in stocks, you have so much information thrown at you all the time. You have it in print, you have it on the tube, so you think you have to do all these things all the time or form opinions. The truth is, you don't have any business-forming opinions and you don't need to. All you have to do is sit there and ride a good asset over a long period of time.
The Dow Jones [Industrial] Average started the 20th century at 66 and it ended at 11,400. That is not a bad train to be on. How could anybody lose money on something that went from 66 to 11,400? Well, a lot of people lost a lot of money in stocks because they come in at the wrong time, and they get out at the wrong time, and they buy the wrong things, and they get excited, and they get greedy when others get greedy, and fearful when others get fearful.
I say you should get greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy, but that's hard for most people to do.
It is much easier to buy and buy and buy little pieces of a wonderful group of American businesses, and you'll do fine over time and you'll keep your costs low. If you try to be a little bit smarter, you'll probably end up being a lot dumber.
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其实本质就是: How could I win? 你想想你的对手都是什么背景？就是那种背景，很多人也是一年工作365天，天天10小时以上. Can you?更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net