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Who knows why?

goodluck8(乐笑每天)
"With today’s announcement that crude oil inventories fell 8.8 million barrels when analysts were expecting a slight increase in inventory levels, the markets reacted sharply, with crude futures immediately spiking almost $4 per barrel to over $133."

Then it came down to 126 gradually. Why?
(#36147@43)
Last Updated: 2008-5-29
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 本来油价的下降趋势好好的, 今天MORGAN STANLEY出来说油价要涨到150很容易.分明是老生长谈, 但是对市场还是有影响. 估计是他们还没有出清油期的单子, 找人当托了. -studystock(backtobasic); 2008-5-28 (#36009@43)
    • 油价很难理解，欧元涨时它跟涨，欧元跌时它不跌。 -goodluck8(乐笑每天); 2008-5-28 (#36010@43)
    • 看看石油接近135是的市场反应。如果DOW受到打击，应该买进HOD。我的目标价格是 8.25. 如果DOW免疫了。应该在138~140附近买进。估计到时HOD的价格应该创新低，<8$. -it.uncle(路谣.酒酣胸胆尚开张); 2008-5-28 {103} (#36011@43)
      MM在7月份出去渡假以前，一定要用石油将DOW砸死，然后低价买进股票等回来后拉高。所以石油上150几乎不用怀疑。
    • Oil is still in up trend. Any short side plays should be very careful. -jeffl(I have a dream); 2008-5-28 (#36012@43)
      • 希望这次油价是中期回调。不然我们老百姓怎么活啊。 -studystock(backtobasic); 2008-5-29 (#36099@43)
        • why oil jump from 128 to 132? -jenny1(mouse); 2008-5-29 (#36100@43)
          • Inventory is short -it.uncle(路谣.千金散尽还复来); 2008-5-29 (#36102@43)
          • Here: -t1200(石头疙瘩); 2008-5-29 {255} (#36105@43)
            Crude inventories for the week ended May 24 fell by 8.9 million barrels. Analysts expected that inventory levels would be unchanged. Crude prices spike to a gain of 1.5% at $133.10 per barrel after trading down 1.3% to $129.27 just prior to the release.
          • Crude oil fell more than $2 again... -t1200(石头疙瘩); 2008-5-29 (#36109@43)
            • 过山车。。。 -kqc(祝福四川，祝福中国); 2008-5-29 (#36110@43)
            • cold sweat, when oil up to $132 as I just jump in $12.50 for Hed.to -jenny1(mouse); 2008-5-29 (#36111@43)
          • Now 128. -goodluck8(乐笑每天); 2008-5-29 (#36112@43)
            • do you have Hed? what is your target price for out? -jenny1(mouse); 2008-5-29 (#36114@43)
              • 126 -it.uncle(路谣.千金散尽还复来); 2008-5-29 (#36118@43)
    • 大家预测一下这次油可以回调到多少价位? 110? -studystock(backtobasic); 2008-5-29 (#36127@43)
      • 接下来下看120附近（120.3 , 119.5) -goodluck8(乐笑每天); 2008-5-29 (#36141@43)
      • 石油如果真的有人操纵。由于政府部门介入调查，会有所收敛。但是，不代表这些人不再进行炒作。本周应该不会有什么表现了。关键是下周三以后，伦敦时区的交易。如果伦敦时区交易拉高，纽约时段平静，表明后面还要又大的石油行情。不然，就真的退回100去了。 -it.uncle(路谣.千金散尽还复来); 2008-5-29 (#36152@43)
        • 判断OIL走势需要分析 call 和 put 的Open Interest, price, volume 的变化趋势以及crude oil chart。否则只能是瞎猜乱说。 -goodluck8(乐笑每天); 2008-5-29 (#36153@43)
          • 你可以去分析这些表面的现象。也可以去分析影响/导致这些表面现象的背后因素。 -it.uncle(路谣.千金散尽还复来); 2008-5-29 (#36154@43)
    • Well, another story here. This may make things different now ==> -it.uncle(路谣.千金散尽还复来); 2008-5-29 (#36138@43)
      • 现在的对冲基金实在是太大了. 你买, 他买, 大家都买, 不管基本面如何. 不知道人为操纵和哄抬物价哪个是违法的, 哪个不是违法的. 而作为小散户, 我们只能死守了. 只要基本面在, 总有赢得市场的时候. -studystock(backtobasic); 2008-5-29 (#36155@43)
        • 政府可以重新定义游戏规则。民愤很大啊，CBS新闻航空公司协会，说目前是比911还困难得时期。人们的怨气已经开始指向布什政府了，说布什没有及时地制定响应的政策解决早已经出现问题的能源。最后说：There will be no free peanuts on the flight(不是FREE LUNCH) -it.uncle(路谣.千金散尽还复来); 2008-5-29 (#36156@43)
          • free peanuts? 我怎么从没得到过？亏大了我。。。 -kqc(祝福四川，祝福中国); 2008-5-29 (#36157@43)
            • 当时的大概意思翻译过来就是，如果继续这样发展下去，为了生存，航空公司不得不继续提高标价，降低服务，以后除了凉水，不会再有任何免费服务。就连个免费花生豆 都不会有了。 -it.uncle(路谣.千金散尽还复来); 2008-5-29 (#36158@43)
        • "不知道人为操纵和哄抬物价哪个是违法的, 哪个不是违法的" -- 如果有过多投机行为的话，通过一些市场干预行为就可以对过多的资金进行打压。中国叫印花税。这边也会有类似的东西。只要有账目，这种事情很容易的发现的。 -it.uncle(路谣.千金散尽还复来); 2008-5-29 (#36159@43)
    • Who knows why? -goodluck8(乐笑每天); 2008-5-29 {299} (#36147@43)
      "With today’s announcement that crude oil inventories fell 8.8 million barrels when analysts were expecting a slight increase in inventory levels, the markets reacted sharply, with crude futures immediately spiking almost $4 per barrel to over $133."

      Then it came down to 126 gradually. Why?
      • The prior inventory figure was artificially low because it didn't include the unloaded oil tanks. You'll see inventory jump next week. Oil price reacted to this expectation. -xjurum(要塞玫瑰); 2008-5-29 (#36174@43)

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