Crow's Mouth(3): Do you believe in the management of a company? For those who base their investments on the fundamental analysis, they often cite the good management of a company as a reason for their bet.
Of course, the managment must be good. However, few people worry about the fact that some companies' management teams are way too good.
I know some people invest a lot of money in Apple (AAPL). They have too many reasons. For example, they love iPod. Of course, they trust Steve Jobs.
During recent option scandels, AAPL has been very positive in collaborating with SEC and communicating with media. They admitted what mistakes they have made. However, they meticulously kept Steve Jobs clean. This CEO is way too important to AAPL.
Now imagine the following scenario: Steve Jobs suddenly dies. Then you know what? I estimate APPL will be haircut about $15-20. No matter how successful iPhone will be, this gap cannot be filled within 1 year. Indeed, Steve Jobs account for about 20% of Apple's market value.
In one word, there is nothing for sure in the market. No matter you good your analyses are, they are just some educated guesswork. Some rare events can kill you if you do not manage the risk in your portfolia. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五) 2007-4-21