本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛YHOO had been a low performer in thepast few years under the presure of competetion from GOOGLE. According to Jim Cramer, Yhoo had ever missed the earning expectation for 13 times consecutively!

However, YAHOO has its value. Since last year, it is constantly rumored in the Street that Microsft will suit Yahoo. For this reason, I mentioned YHOO could be an M & A target, and one had better not to short sell its stock, unless you are day trading. My reasoning is simple: If the rumor breaks out again, the shorts will be buried immediately. Interestingly enough, some guy rebuffed me based upon his understanding of Microsoft adnd Yahoo's business. Nonetheless, I stuck with my stance, because I did not care the rumor would be tue or false. The stock market is not a place where we prove or disprove our thoughts. We care about the risk most, even this risk is originated from the rumor. 宁可信其有，不可信其无。

A few months ago, MSFT wooed YHOO, and we knew that. A lot of shorts got broke, and they are not only retail investors, but also some funds.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛If you look into Lehman Brother's book, you will see how ugly it is. Most analysts on the Street believe that LEH will not survive as an independent company. Recently, short sellers have launched a spate of attacks on LEH shares.

Do you want to short LEH shares too? Well, first check on your stomach. If there is a rumor overnoght that Barclay will buy LEH for $30 per share, LEH could jump to $33-35. You probably will never have an opportunity to fix your mistake.

Well, you may think about it another way: Since LEH will bot out some day, I would like to go long and wait for harvest some premiums. Wait a minute. Nobody can tell you that LEH will be bot with some premium. LEH has only about $38bln capitals, but it now still controls almost $400bln assets (My numbers may not be accuarate). Although LEH has raised some funds, nobody can guarantee that it will not follow Bear Stern's footprints. If this happens, LEH will be "fire sold" like Bear Stern, and you will lose huge instead of receiving some premium.

Then, what can we do? The answer is simple. Stay away from LEH, either long or short.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net