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Now it's earning report seaon. 16 of 30 DIA components reported...

wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五)
10 beat. 6 met. What's the last straw that can crash Dow? What's the trigger for Dow to go down? We can make a list of candidates.

The street has very high expectations on Microsoft's Vista. I bet it will disappoint the street.

Of course, Beige book on Wednesday is a possible trigger.
(#449@43)
Last Updated: 2007-4-23
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 好走势, 忍不住满仓put DIA. -wavewatcher(水晶球); 2007-4-23 (#435@43)
    • 我今天加仓qid和加拿大的hxd。希望老大的预言成真。 -haploidus(今剩叹); 2007-4-23 (#439@43)
      • 今天还是不行啊，忍 -haploidus(今剩叹); 2007-4-24 (#490@43)
      • It's not a good idea to size up your positions. Nothing is for sure in the market. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-24 (#493@43)
    • Are you serious? I think you will make money soon. I fell that MSFT will bring down DIA -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-23 (#441@43)
      • sure , i'm serious, DAWQZ.X @1.55 going to sell Wed afternoon. I don't know about MSFT trend. noly interested in index. 但是这位朋友的qid & hxd我不知是啥啊. 不好意思. -wavewatcher(水晶球); 2007-4-23 (#443@43)
        • DIA is just a combination of 30 stocks. You need some of its components going down. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-23 (#444@43)
          • oh, i see. but i only trade DIA option , sometimes QQQQ option. and only these two. I never short stocks before. 见笑了. 北美股市也就只研究过指数. -wavewatcher(水晶球); 2007-4-23 (#446@43)
            • Now it's earning report seaon. 16 of 30 DIA components reported... -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-23 {296} (#449@43)
              10 beat. 6 met. What's the last straw that can crash Dow? What's the trigger for Dow to go down? We can make a list of candidates.

              The street has very high expectations on Microsoft's Vista. I bet it will disappoint the street.

              Of course, Beige book on Wednesday is a possible trigger.
        • 呵呵。 是ETF，QID是short QQQQ也就是NASDAQ的。 HXD是short TSX的。总之市场跌他们就涨。从图形看，颇不错。 -haploidus(今剩叹); 2007-4-23 (#445@43)
          • The overall market is on a decent uptrend after closing up the last sell off gap on Feb. 27th. The Qs is have a little resistance at the old highs. However, with the advancing 20, 50 MA ahead, the last gap is not supporting the Qs to the new highs. -lddd(ldd); 2007-4-24 {520} (#468@43)
            Well, the overall market is on a decent uptrend after closing up the last sell off gap on Feb. 27th. The Qs is have a little resistance at the old highs. However, with the advancing 20, 50 MA ahead, the last gap is not supporting the Qs to the new highs. As a result, the chart for QID is the other side of this story, which is heading south. Plus it is the double - shorts ETF, really gotta watch out. 07 might be a chanllenging year for the Qs, but stepping in QID on this uptrend is a such a risky play. Not worth it.
        • The leverage in DIA is kind of small. I will continue on ^OEX puts -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-23 (#448@43)
          • 其实我也知很多股票的期权更多利. 不过我现在实在是没时间. 以后一定向你请教. -wavewatcher(水晶球); 2007-4-23 (#456@43)
          • 老五，你看过dndn吗？ -rwwr(人无完人); 2007-4-23 (#463@43)
            • 才看了, 恭喜恭喜, 完人. -wavewatcher(水晶球); 2007-4-23 (#464@43)
            • 你打算怎么玩这个股票？如果May 15 FDA批准它的新药，这个股票至少可以上三十，你会赌那一天吗？ -carelesswhisper(无心快语); 2007-4-23 (#465@43)
              • 至少上30， 就这么一说，什么根据都没有，吹碟那 。。。 -lddd(ldd); 2007-4-24 (#466@43)
              • It will either go to the heaven or the hell. I choose to stay away. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-24 {882} (#470@43)
                There are a lot of ways to make money. I can make bets on NYX, TM, FXI, OIH, CHL, AAPL, RIMM, AMGN ....using option spreads to make money steadly. Even I am wrong in judging stock's movement, I can still win small or brek even. Of course, I cannot double or triple my money within one day.

                Here are my two cents. If FDA approves Provemenge, DNDN may evenutaully go to $40-45, you guys have enough time to chase it; If FDA does not approve it and ask more infomation, it will go back to $5-7. Because of high volatility, you have no way to play stradle or strangle. Any play on this, if wrong, it will bring big loss. I conceived some option spreads, but I throw them away because I think there is no way to save the trade if I am wrong.

                Of course, doubling our money within a few days is very tempting. I hope you guys control your trading size on DNDN.

                Happy Trading
                • I won't play this one, just curious How 完人 gonna play it。 -carelesswhisper(无心快语); 2007-4-24 (#482@43)
                  • 我只是买了17.5的call,准备逢高出局现在赚50％。只是跟着看盘的感觉走 -rwwr(人无完人); 2007-4-25 (#535@43)
              • Just for carelesswhisper. Do you remember the case of WENDY's and TIM HORTON? I hope DNDN is not WEN. -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-24 (#472@43)
              • 50, at least. Anybody knows the phase III result? If it fails FDA approval, the price will drop below 3, because it has only product candidates. The chance for new drugs to pass FDA is around one tenth, but I can't member the -ccloafer(梦游加拿大); 2007-4-24 {26} (#487@43)
                remember the exact figure.
    • 满仓 DIA put ? 似乎短期有pullback, 但trending for new highs， looks like semiconductor sector is on the move after today's closing earnings. 您说得好走势，为啥要满仓put 呢? -lddd(ldd); 2007-4-24 (#467@43)
      • TXN has a strong short squeeze. We may short it again if it dares to challenge $36 -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-24 (#473@43)
      • AT & T reported a good earning. It may lift DIA -wang-lao-wu(钻石王老五); 2007-4-24 (#476@43)

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