Here is the math, approximately.

hungrygrad(easylife)

AIG can sell its core assets for $180B, as estimated by others. Minus the $85B loan (equal to their bad loan loss?) from the government will leave them $95B. The market cap of AIG is only $13B now. So theoretically the share price could be 7 times more and $28/sh seems reasonable. That's why AIG shareholders want a quick sale of AIG without share dilution with the government.

(#48146@43)
Last Updated: 2008-9-22

is it a sign to buy -cocoa(享受每一天); 2008-9-22 (#48071@43)

但是还是有很多的卖盘，为什么股价还是升呢 -cocoa(享受每一天); 2008-9-22 (#48074@43)

多方现在是蚂蚁搬家。很多人估计看到AIG上了5$，来分FRE。你一手，我二手的，就给分光了。哈哈哈，看着，真有趣。DOW被石油价格给打爬下了。FRE很快要和FNM同价格了。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-22 (#48080@43)

upside is unlimited -hungrygrad(easylife); 2008-9-22 (#48073@43)

heihei, I do not think so. Trash is trash. -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-22 (#48119@43)

继续升啊，还在我的一半而已！ -sowen(昂居居); 2008-9-22 (#48077@43)

现在进FRE 风险大吗 -cocoa(享受每一天); 2008-9-22 (#48082@43)

但是FRE的量不够大，是不是说明阻力小呢 -cocoa(享受每一天); 2008-9-22 (#48084@43)

买FRE是赌博。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-22 (#48088@43)

FRE 不要问我，我是 FRE 的历史遗留物。个人感觉，要短线炒，不如 AIG，因为至少 AIG 还有股东努力支持(selling asset)，FRE 已经屁都放不了一个 -sowen(昂居居); 2008-9-22 (#48086@43)

I feel more comfortable now as AIG is down 10% from the high today. I would buy on dip if I didn't hold enough shares. -hungrygrad(easylife); 2008-9-22 (#48089@43)

AIG should be OK for the next 2-3 days, I am looking forward tomorrow, I just placed an order, 4.60, see if I can enter the field tomorrow opening. :D -sowen(昂居居); 2008-9-22 (#48126@43)

如果你想赌，就一定不要用太多的资金。目前AIG已经从底部上来了3倍了。风险真的非常大。目前坛子中大部人的持仓成本在2.7$，所以他们抗得住。如果要买，一定要看图买。这是赌博。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-22 (#48140@43)

I bought AIG last week for gambling but now it seems the market has different sense. There are arguments that AIG worths at least $28 by just selling its assets. -hungrygrad(easylife); 2008-9-22 (#48143@43)

Could you provide link please. I prefer English( I know I am bad, I never trust Chinese Translator ) -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-22 (#48147@43)

Here is the math, approximately. -hungrygrad(easylife); 2008-9-22 {379} (#48146@43)
AIG can sell its core assets for $180B, as estimated by others. Minus the $85B loan (equal to their bad loan loss?) from the government will leave them $95B. The market cap of AIG is only $13B now. So theoretically the share price could be 7 times more and $28/sh seems reasonable. That's why AIG shareholders want a quick sale of AIG without share dilution with the government.

Could you provide the original? I need to verify the details. -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-22 (#48149@43)
如果你上面的信息不准确的话，会给散户带来巨大的损失。两房估计大户早就逃之夭夭了，现在里面全是赌徒在玩。而AIG的大户几乎没有时间逃跑，里面全是MM。因此，搞不好就是一个局。小心为上。如果股价真的上了10$，卖掉大部分，留一些赌无妨。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-22 (#48157@43)

Here is one link mentioning that AIG could be sold for $180B. You can do the rest of the math by yourself.
-hungrygrad(easylife); 2008-9-22 (#48160@43)

Your FRE is above $1 -hungrygrad(easylife); 2008-9-23 (#48202@43)

YES. I am making a lot -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 {16} (#48203@43)
of cents

-:(
Yes, I made tons of money -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48205@43)

Good for you. It is 1.2. Doubled my entry price. But I do not have lot of shares. -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48207@43)

why didn't u add yesterday -cocoa(享受每一天); 2008-9-23 (#48208@43)

Risk control. -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48209@43)

if you pridict it will touch 2$,then 1$ is very safe.right? -cocoa(享受每一天); 2008-9-23 (#48224@43)

I am holding FRE 300,000 shares @average cost 0.38 now. what`s the target price for dumping? any comments? -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48210@43)

Weeeeeeeeee. You really got guts. I do not know. But I think it will break 2$ in a week. -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48211@43)

I think it may be the best time to dump today or tomorrow. -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48214@43)

actually, I already dump 100,000 yesterday @0.85 -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48216@43)
I do not have too many shares. So I just keep it. Once it break 1.5, it will touch 2.0 in 1 day. But, the limit for short term 2$. Because WM is only 3.xx -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48217@43)

any chance to see 2.00 today or tomorrow? 1.50 seems more possible? -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48213@43)

2$ is too difficult for today. Today should be somewhere between 1.25~1.30 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48215@43)

Put $100K in a single penny stock. I admire you. -hungrygrad(easylife); 2008-9-23 (#48218@43)

He must have at lease 1M in his account. -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48219@43)

It is not about how much money in the account. It is about risk control. -hungrygrad(easylife); 2008-9-23 (#48221@43)

The risk control is about %. If he would like to spend 100K in penny shares, He must be a big money holder. -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48222@43)
And he must be very good at stocks. At least 10 years of experience. -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48223@43)

just follow this one: http://www.chinasmile.net/forums/showthread.php?t=111355 -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48226@43)

just dump 90,000@1.33 -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48227@43)

Nice move. Up 75% now. Unbelievable! -hungrygrad(easylife); 2008-9-23 (#48229@43)
sold 110,000@1.48 -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48231@43)

佩服啊。羡慕地口水横流。有胆识，厉害厉害。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48234@43)
sold 100,000@1.42 -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48236@43)

好了，你暴赚了30万。你给我们这个论坛的同学都上了一课。高手啊高手。我SHARE也不多，我就继续等了。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48237@43)

赌呀，好几天没睡好觉了，还有50,000股FNM. 走的时候相互招呼一声额。 -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48242@43)

那你认为LEHMQ的走势会如何呢? -lastcall(all in); 2008-9-23 (#48287@43)

you could make another 1m from this stock, but now.........sigh -summerpassion(夏日激情); 2008-9-23 (#48230@43)

？？？请把话讲完。你抛出了论点，在我们期待论据的时候，你却长叹一声。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48235@43)

今天要能挺得住，不受太长上影线，那明天还有一冲，注意他的量，如超过3亿就要小心廖 -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48238@43)

多谢高手指点。请以后多来这里指导工作。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48240@43)

不敢乱说，万一错了会被砖头拍S的，只是自己的感觉而已：政府抛了那么多钱出来，不大捞一把回去怎么能甘心？怎么安抚广大的穷苦百姓？当然这个时间段就不知道要多长了 -summerpassion(夏日激情); 2008-9-23 (#48241@43)

说吧。这里又不是共产党的论坛。我是准备留一些做纪念的。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48243@43)

惭愧，我也是长期看跌的，又不是什么高手，所以只能放放马后炮而已，只能说：wisw是个纯粹的赌徒，这把嬴了，见好就收，否则以后指不定啥时候输回去 -summerpassion(夏日激情); 2008-9-23 (#48245@43)

He is the winner this time. For me there is no way to put $100K in a bankrupt stock no matter how low the price is and how many millions I have. It is a gamble. -hungrygrad(easylife); 2008-9-23 (#48247@43)
我赌得还真不少，从ENE,DYN,CPN,MIR,FRE,FNM都赢了， -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 {226} (#48248@43)
只有一个搞电信的的输了（输了33%），记不请他的代码廖，反镇最后由Charter11---->Charter 7。那还是03年的事料。这种赌法，有的人适合，大部分人不适合。不要轻易去试。这个坦中的人，我看过了，大部分人士比较保守稳健的方势，还是比较好的。

有什么心得？能不能写出来让我们学习一下。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48249@43)

for fun: http://www.chinasmile.net/forums/showthread.php?t=111355 -wisw(:...); 2008-9-23 (#48250@43)

看了，很神奇。你能不能总结一下，贴上来让大家学习。里面的确有很多见地，貌似风险极其高，但是其实风险很低。就叫<<破产股票的玩法>>吧。期待中。 -it.uncle(路遥.股市上下求索); 2008-9-23 (#48253@43)

Here is the math, approximately.

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