本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛TORONTO — The Canadian dollar has taken another dive, falling by more than 2 cents at one point Thursday.
The loonie was down nearly 2 cents in currency markets at midday, falling to 87.18 cents (U.S.) at noon. That's down 1.88 cents from Wednesday and down nearly 7 cents since the end of September when the dollar closed at 93.97 cents.
Canada's currency had been down as much as 2.18 cents against the U.S. dollar earlier Thursday, trading as low as 86.88 cents. Other major currencies, including the euro and Japanese yen, were essentially holding their own against the greenback.
The Canadian dollar had soared to record highs last year on the strength of global demand for commodities such as oil, grains, minerals and potash.
But with economic growth in Canada and the world shrivelling, commodity prices including crude oil have fallen, taking away some of the wind beneath the loonie's wings.
The crisis in many of the world's stock and credit markets and uncertainty about the outcome of Canada's federal election next week have also been cited as reasons behind the sagging loonie.
The currency is also being sideswiped by rising demand for the U.S. dollar as the United States government tries to borrow heavily in global money markets to finance its $700-billion bailout of Wall Street banks.
“I think we're seeing a perfect storm hit the Canadian dollar,” David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said Thursday.
“You had stories in the news about Canadian banks having some liquidity issues and any time your financial system is in the news nowadays, your currency is getting pressured,” Mr. Watt said.
He was referring to an article in The Globe and Mail, which reported Thursday that officials are looking at possible options should the global turmoil in credit markets spread to Canadian banks.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told a news conference Thursday that Canada's financial system will not require a bailout since it is fundamentally strong.
“We are not looking at a rescue package for banks, we are not looking at a bailout for banks, we are not looking at creating any additional risk for taxpayers' money in Canada by bailing out banks.”
Canada's big chartered banks also made news on Wednesday when they decided to cut their prime rates by only a quarter-point, rather than match the Bank of Canada's half-point cut earlier in the day.
The commercial banks had, for years, matched the ups and downs of the central bank's key lending rates but Toronto-Dominion Bank said Wednesday it needed to increase the spread to offset the higher costs of doing business in the current credit markets.
Mr. Watt also noted that the International Monetary Fund's latest world outlook, released Wednesday, is calling for global economic growth of just 3 per cent — the lowest since 2002 — down from 5 per cent last year and a projected 3.9 per cent in 2008.
“The global economic outlook is deteriorating quite sharply and it's hitting a lot of currencies, especially the Canadian dollar,” Mr. Watt said.
“The IMF is calling for all but a global recession over 2009 and, if anything, their commentary is even more bearish than that.”
That's bad for a lot of resource-backed currencies, like Canada's, that had done well as economies around the world were expanding, he said.
The price of crude oil, one of the big drivers behind the loonie's rise to a record high of $1.103 on Nov. 11, 2007, has fallen dramatically since July.
The November contract for light, sweet crude was at $89.09 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange just after midday Thursday, up 14 cents from the previous close but down from the record high of just over $147 a barrel set in July.
Mr. Watt suggested that political jockeying ahead of Canada's Oct. 14 federal vote has also become a factor because “people now just don't want to deal with uncertainty.”
If the loonie stays at current levels it will make imports of everything from Florida fruit and California vegetables more expensive for Canadian consumers and raise the costs of winter vacations to the U.S. southern states.
But it will also provide some relief to hard-pressed Canadian manufacturers, which have been squeezed for the last two years as the loonie rose on currency markets, making exports of lumber, newsprint, machinery, furniture and other products more costly in the United States market.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
The loonie was down nearly 2 cents in currency markets at midday, falling to 87.18 cents (U.S.) at noon. That's down 1.88 cents from Wednesday and down nearly 7 cents since the end of September when the dollar closed at 93.97 cents.
Canada's currency had been down as much as 2.18 cents against the U.S. dollar earlier Thursday, trading as low as 86.88 cents. Other major currencies, including the euro and Japanese yen, were essentially holding their own against the greenback.
The Canadian dollar had soared to record highs last year on the strength of global demand for commodities such as oil, grains, minerals and potash.
But with economic growth in Canada and the world shrivelling, commodity prices including crude oil have fallen, taking away some of the wind beneath the loonie's wings.
The crisis in many of the world's stock and credit markets and uncertainty about the outcome of Canada's federal election next week have also been cited as reasons behind the sagging loonie.
The currency is also being sideswiped by rising demand for the U.S. dollar as the United States government tries to borrow heavily in global money markets to finance its $700-billion bailout of Wall Street banks.
“I think we're seeing a perfect storm hit the Canadian dollar,” David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said Thursday.
“You had stories in the news about Canadian banks having some liquidity issues and any time your financial system is in the news nowadays, your currency is getting pressured,” Mr. Watt said.
He was referring to an article in The Globe and Mail, which reported Thursday that officials are looking at possible options should the global turmoil in credit markets spread to Canadian banks.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told a news conference Thursday that Canada's financial system will not require a bailout since it is fundamentally strong.
“We are not looking at a rescue package for banks, we are not looking at a bailout for banks, we are not looking at creating any additional risk for taxpayers' money in Canada by bailing out banks.”
Canada's big chartered banks also made news on Wednesday when they decided to cut their prime rates by only a quarter-point, rather than match the Bank of Canada's half-point cut earlier in the day.
The commercial banks had, for years, matched the ups and downs of the central bank's key lending rates but Toronto-Dominion Bank said Wednesday it needed to increase the spread to offset the higher costs of doing business in the current credit markets.
Mr. Watt also noted that the International Monetary Fund's latest world outlook, released Wednesday, is calling for global economic growth of just 3 per cent — the lowest since 2002 — down from 5 per cent last year and a projected 3.9 per cent in 2008.
“The global economic outlook is deteriorating quite sharply and it's hitting a lot of currencies, especially the Canadian dollar,” Mr. Watt said.
“The IMF is calling for all but a global recession over 2009 and, if anything, their commentary is even more bearish than that.”
That's bad for a lot of resource-backed currencies, like Canada's, that had done well as economies around the world were expanding, he said.
The price of crude oil, one of the big drivers behind the loonie's rise to a record high of $1.103 on Nov. 11, 2007, has fallen dramatically since July.
The November contract for light, sweet crude was at $89.09 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange just after midday Thursday, up 14 cents from the previous close but down from the record high of just over $147 a barrel set in July.
Mr. Watt suggested that political jockeying ahead of Canada's Oct. 14 federal vote has also become a factor because “people now just don't want to deal with uncertainty.”
If the loonie stays at current levels it will make imports of everything from Florida fruit and California vegetables more expensive for Canadian consumers and raise the costs of winter vacations to the U.S. southern states.
But it will also provide some relief to hard-pressed Canadian manufacturers, which have been squeezed for the last two years as the loonie rose on currency markets, making exports of lumber, newsprint, machinery, furniture and other products more costly in the United States market.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net