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Here is how I count. On 5 mins chart, count the volume of red bars and green bars. Also you can see clearly that the red bars have much big volume than green bars. It will take some time to bring bulls down. Still in consolidation phase

but Bears have upper hand now.
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  • SPX Support / Resistance for Dec 11, 2008 918~920 2nd resistance, 904~906 1st resistance. 886~888 1st support, 870~872 2nd support. It says that gold hides in silence.
    • How could you trade in such narrow range?
      • I made a little this morning and enough to cover the loss I had yesterday.
    • BTW 路遥 sounds better than 小路. Anyways YNYD :=)
    • 谢谢提供
    • 路遥 : if i want to get some H*D today, should I get HXD or HSD? Thanks.
      • I think the market has not found its direction yet. SPX could go up or down 100 points from here. TSX has been beaten down for a while so the profit room is less that HSD/HSU. Play defensively and make small bet each time
        • thx
        • 路遥大侠给我们新人推荐借个DT的股吧。现在看的是云里雾里,不知道怎么是好。特地休息两天,不能什么也不玩,要求不高。赚个手续费,过过手瘾。先谢过了。不过能挣钱更好!!!
          • This is a very uncertain market. Even skillful traders could be caught. So better rest for a while .That been said, it is better be a judge than a fighter for now.
      • Don't want to mislead you but the bulls have a very solid support at 886(today's bad news didn't break the 1st support). Seems the main players are determined to bring this rally to a new high. So be careful. It is not time for bear-pile-in yet.
      • The time for you to make a big bear bet is when you see VIX jumps higher. But right now, it is new lower low all the time. So bears are still waiting. Bulls are still dominating the market. Watch out VIX all the time.
        • Thanks! I did not trade yesterday. Maybe will not trade today too.
          • Yes. Better to wait. The time is running out for Bulls. It is lossing strength. But nobody knows if Bulls will make a final attack(I wish I do -:). Right now the oil/gold are shooting up. This gives Bulls some support.
            • 路遥, do you have hou.to? what do you think of it ? thanks
              • No. I do not have it. Short term, Oil is having a decent rebounce. Middle term ( 2 ~3 months) will still go down. I do not see any new trend yet but this could lead to form a new trend in the coming month(bottom is coming)
                • you mean HOD to buy?
                  • Not either. Market is seeking direction now.
                    • For how long? Tomorrow?
                      • I think the oil will soon be going down. There is no reason it can stay on 50$ for more than 5 days. Who needs oil when you do not have money? Low gas price will benifit American. For average family
                        if the gas price can stay uner 1.8$/gallon, a family can save 400$ for other spending such as food. This oil rally is some how related to this stock rally.

                        First, start from Bank
                        Now, it is energy

                        It seems that after all the sectors completing its buyer seeking process, the market will finally go down, but this time, may not be a sharp down but slow bottoming.
                        • Fundementals like that but opec doesn't
                          • This rally is a show to OPEC. If it is on 50, OPEC has less reason to cut more production( anyway they will do but cut could be a reasonable amount). After the OPEC meeting, oil will go down as it should. OPEC has never successfully
                            controled the oil price. It is controled by US oil families.
                            • Sounds very reasonable! Do agree! Thus, this show will last till Dec. 17? 嘿嘿
                            • 最近的原油价格好象和BIG 3有配合似的.
                              • 当然是对石油的利好
                                • 不对吧. 连BIG 3 自己的股票在通过14B 后都下跌, 怎么是对石油的利好. 我只是觉得在BAILOUT前要把油价砸下去. 在OPEC决定减产前再把油价提到50左右. 其实是在帮助美国的BIG 3.
                • I will be on bear side this time!
    • 今天这个range预测得很准呀. HSD简直不跟SPX, 跳上跳下地, 最高都到862的价格了. 我设价在870, 严重偏低, $32.31就出去了, SPX才在875
      • I think it is time to slowly buy HSD.TO/SDS now. The market has made the decision today. There is a weakness in Bull. Bears just started piling in.
        • 成交量还是太小
          • Here is how I count. On 5 mins chart, count the volume of red bars and green bars. Also you can see clearly that the red bars have much big volume than green bars. It will take some time to bring bulls down. Still in consolidation phase
            but Bears have upper hand now.
          • I will buy more HSD when the market goes up for consolidation(but this time, the consolidation is for down trend).
            • 今天870站稳了,看明天,GS今天很抗跌.
              • Not really. The 2nd support of today has been broken. Tomorrow, 80% of the chance the market will start lower than 870. 870 could be very close to the 1st resistance of tomorrow.. Will look into this tonight.
                The market picked up a little bit at the last 10 minutes because most of the tiny bears(like me) are day traders. They have to cover thier positions in the early decline of the market. You can see that SPY/QQQQ/DIA are still dropping at after hour trading (could be the same tomorrow for pre-market trading if there is no GOOD news).

                For the huge bears ( institunational investors), they may pile in when each time the market goes upwards for down trend consolidation).

                Tomorrow is Friday. So there could be a crucial battle between Bears and Bulls.