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copied from other website "Just finished watching BNN, which says that HOU is a good long term buy (at least 6 months) and that its an easy double up.

He figures
(don't know his name) it may go to 1.70, then stabilize, then take-
off. Any news is good news. "
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  • HOU到底适合怎么做? 不知道摊子里是否有人买HOU是受我的影响, 如果有, 向您道歉. HOU就是HOU, 它本身不好不坏, 很中性, 你只有认识它才能利用它.
    1. 现阶段HOU不适合DT, 滑差大, 没有办法跟图做.
    2. 现阶段不能长线持有, 大家都知道了. 其实我这里警告过一年多了, 从一开始接触杠杆ETF, 我就意识到存在这个风险, 也多次好心表达过自己的理解.
    但是,
    3. 现在的HOU适合一两周内的2到3天反弹. 并不是所有东西都有这样的机会的.
    4. HOU不适合长期持有是因为大范围波动和当月合同没人要, 这种情况不是长期的. 石油还是趋势市场, 现在的种种不利, 以后会成为吸引人的地方. 比如指数复利, 石油涨1倍, HOU可能涨5倍.

    不管大家怎么打算, 我会一如既往地关注HOU.
    • If you know how it works...think it over...you will know I didn't say it's a scam because I mad at it...whenever the oil spot price is not straight up continually for a while...even just flat...you are making money by shorting it.
      • short杠杆指数基金是非常非常危险的操作方法, 错了你没有办法控制风险, 对了你的收益指数递减. 这里很多人只是看到了一个片面就下了极端的结论. 不信咱们过一段时间来看, 一定有人在这上面吃大亏.
        • I'm only only talking about HOU...no other Hxx....maybe other Hxx has the same thing, but i haven't look into yet...
    • 感觉关键还是需要把握住趋势。。。hou从7月高点48到现在2,下降了近25倍,如果short hou并hold,收益非常不错。。。hod从7月底点6到现在63, 上升10倍,如果buy并hold,收益也很不错。
      • 当初short你敢short多少? 买HOD你敢买多少? 按相同仓位算一下盈利好坏一目了然.
        • 我一般尽量固定每单的金额,每单的股数是根据价格算出来的。。比如每单3K, 股价2,就作1500股;如果股价100,就作30股。。。然后作一个计划来操作多单
          • 好吧, 比如咱们现在都打算3K做多OIL, 我买1500股HOU, 你short多少HOD才算合理呢? 一两天内看, 你short 50股和我的仓位是等价的, 那看一年你可能得short500股仓位才能跟我的HOU相当. 那你是short50还是500呢? OIL再跌30%也是可能的, 那时候你cover么?
            • 当然是short 50股,short比long的风险大。。。 可以作简单计算,如果OIL跌30%,你估计hou跌到多少? hod长到多少? 从历史看,同样的oil跌幅, hou跌的比例要比hod长的比例大
              • 单边跌范围是可以算出来的, 用哥西不等式吧? 如果算上波动, HOU也可能先清0, 跟变动的pattern有关系. 但是当你short 50 HOD的时候, 假设油价跌30%, 你的HOD涨了70%, 你cover吗?
                • I believe short not works with 单边跌or涨. But if it is up and down then short can make more money.
    • agree with you ,although hou is trapping 1/10 money of my account , but I won't stop to follow up it. it is not right time to buy if making it as long term, but let us have more discussion when and where is bottum of hou.
      • 我跟你差不多, 7.5%的仓位买进去, 现在4%的仓位不到, 主要赔在两次短线重仓上, 幸亏每次大跌都提前减仓了. 现在想想, 这些精力花在HOD上是暴利, 而不是为保本来回折腾. 学到的最大教训是, 如果有10%以上的盈利, 一定要先主动保证赢利再说, 决不能让它变输单.
        • I bought at 3.00, but with TSX shut down, I could not escape
    • The key is: HOU buy at open contract(44) and be forced to sell(33) at settlement. To long oil, HOU, USO is worst choice. To short oil, HOD is the best.
      • Do you know what is HOD holding?
        • I guess it covered its Jan short at 32 (buy Jan oil 32) and build new short Feb at 44(sell Feb 44)... Doing that month by month ...
          • I couldn't find the detail of what it's holding...but definitely it's not shorting CLs, i guess it's buying put options on CLs. That's why I don't think it's better than short HOU.
    • copied from other website "Just finished watching BNN, which says that HOU is a good long term buy (at least 6 months) and that its an easy double up.
      He figures
      (don't know his name) it may go to 1.70, then stabilize, then take-
      off. Any news is good news. "
      • 1.7 or so , who agrees?
    • copied from other site
      I'll give you some good reasons to stay with HOU.

      #1: The more it goes down, the more you can purchase. Remember,
      think of what oil will be in 2012, not 2009.

      #2: Once it starts rebounding, the way up will be a very profitable
      one.

      #3: Inflation concerns will make $40 a barrel look like $20 a barrel
      from the 1990s.

      #4: New projects are already being crippled by lack of investment.
      These are almost always huge capital projects that aren't going to
      reappear anytime soon.

      Sometime down the road this is the type of investment you can retire
      off of. Hope it continues down in 2009 and continue to buy in if you
      can afford to do so.
      • Long crude oil >< Long HOU, keep this in you mind...if you haven't pay enough tuition fee already...
        • sure, thanks!
    • 关注HOU... ...