本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛抄书 ( about trading Futures)
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Approach first,method second.
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A trader needs to be like a researcher in an unexplored forest studying a newly discovered wild animal. Eager to learn,searching for the truth, curious as to what will happen next,intent on observing habits and patterns,looking without preconceived opinions or fear.
The primary motive is to observe,learn,and then act intelligently.
No fear because the trader has made the effort to possess the trading intelligence and decision-making capacity necessary to handle whatever the future brings.
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The past is knowable.
The present is observable.
The future is intelligently guessable.
The past is already made,so it is permanent.Only something permanent,unchanging,can ever be known.Therefore,the past can be known.
The present is evolving; it is happening.That which is happening can be seen.So the present can be observed.
The mold of the future is built in the past and refined by the present.However,the actual future is yet-to-be-made and thus will always be unknown.
Only the present is alive and to be alive means to be constantly changing.
If the present is alive and constantly changing,then the present's future must also be ever-changing and thus always unknown.
So,the future can never be known nor perfectly predicted;but the know past and observed present will always indicate a "probable" future.
The future is thus in between unknowable and predictable.
It is more than random,but less than certain.
Tis is intelligently guessable.
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So,how do you make these intelligent guesses about the future?
One approach to solving this problem is to follow these four steps:
First,understanding.
Second,self-nowing.
Third,learning.
Fourth,acting.
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You are trading against the wealthiest and most knowledgeable people and organizations in the world.
Do not delude yourself,you cannot compete on their terms:
information,knoledge,experience,staying power and so on.
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Do not spend time and energy tring to figure out -why- a price moves.
Focus all your attention and energy solely on -what- the price is doing.
If you know something,assume everybody knows it.
Always operate on the assumption that you are at the tail end of the information chain.
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Don't think. Look.
Don't analyze. Observe.
(The institutions you are competing with invariable will have more knowledge,more
information,more of everything than you; but in the seeing competition you can be their equal,or maybe even their better.)
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Avoid making specific predictions about the future.
Making predictions will do you no good and can do you a lot of harm.
Analysis and predictions actually hinder your ability to see and act clearly.
You will be constantly tempted to analyze and predict.
Do so if you wish,just be aware of the dangers and try to adjust accordingly.
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Observe with humility.
Act with arrogance.
When observing,step aside and let humility in.
When acting,banish even the concept of doubt.
When looking at a chart,look with maximum humility.
When acting on what you see,act with total arrogance.
See through your eyes.
Act from your intellect.
(Eyes see,intellect does.Your eyes are the navigator,your intellect the pilot.Your eyes tell you -what-,-which way- and -approximately when- to trade; your intellect decides -how many- contracts to do and -precisely when- to act)
(Understand that the psychological you,the you made up of all your past successes and failures,the you full of hopes for future success and fears of future failures,the you filled with all this extraneous psychological clutter,this you has no role to play in the seeing and acting of trading---this you merely enjoys or suffers the fruits of your trading.
Let images enter through your eyes,detour around your emotions and memories and impact directly on your trading intelligence so it can then act freely and clearly. Let your eyes send uncontaminated sights to your trading intelligence so it can then act as you have conditioned and trained it to do. )
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To trade futures is to live in a state of constant uncertainty.
Surviving and prospering in this evniroment requires clear vision,the guidance of a trading intelligence containing,at a minimum,and accurate knowledge of the past,and then the capacity to act decisively.
Futures trading is always uncertain and therefore sometimes frightening.
In such an evnironment,you need to understand what you are dealing with,you need an unbiased humble brain,and you need to be able to act.
Fear distorts vision.
Intelligentce displaces fear.
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Trading futures is like a voyage down an unexplored river.
You cannot know what lies ahead but you can know where the river has been,you can see which direction it is moving,you can measure how fast it is flowing.Then having done this,you can make an intelligent guess about where it will go next.
You cannot know the future,but you can know the past,and you can calculate the direction and momentum of the present.
Do all of this well and you will be able to make in intelligent guess about the future.
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<<Intelligent Futures Trading>>---Chick Goslin 1997 -- ISBN 0-930233-63-8更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
