Thanks Jim! That is to say that there is a Big chance Gold stock might drop!... .25 cut is the most possible result.....
-chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空);
2007-9-18(#5698@43)
Thanks Jim. What about the real estate stock? The rate change will have big effect on housing market.
-fidofido(哈哈);
2007-9-18(#5700@43)
No one cares about real estate? It's direct affected by the rate.
-fidofido(哈哈);
2007-9-18(#5705@43)
not familiar with them but i dont think rate cut will have immediate effect on them... wont recover so quick...
-chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空);
2007-9-18(#5706@43)
I mean if rate is unchanged or only .25% cut, will this market go from bad to worse?
-fidofido(哈哈);
2007-9-18(#5708@43)
.25's cut i think is really weak for real estate mkt... somebody predicts housing price in us will keep going down one more year. also, the detailed figure about losses from subprime mortgage crisis is not totally calculated yet.
-chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空);
2007-9-18(#5713@43)
Real estate is definitely the loser. It may have a bounce from oversold condition. But it is overal trend is down.No matter how much FED is going to cut this time is not enough to to save real estate. Unless FED keeps cutting like crazy as Greenspan did in 2001. The likelihood is too remote.
-jeffl(jeffl);
2007-9-18{178}(#5709@43)
So is it good to keep my SHORT position?
-fidofido(哈哈);
2007-9-18(#5710@43)
Can't answer your questions since I don't know your situation. I have some short positions on financials as hedge to some Chinese stocks I hold.
-jeffl(jeffl);
2007-9-18(#5716@43)
Seems like the stock market will go lower after the Fed meeting. Most likely the rate will keep unchanged, or .25% cut. No more cut this time. Otherwise US dollars is dead.
-fidofido(哈哈);
2007-9-18(#5701@43)
I think so... dollar dead but gold alive :)
-chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空);
2007-9-18(#5703@43)
How much is the rate cut is important. So is the FED's view towards the economy and inflation.Bernanke is different from Greenspan. Greenspan just did what the market had expected. Bernanke is more creative, which makes it more difficult the predict the outcome.
-jeffl(jeffl);
2007-9-18{168}(#5704@43)
Bernanke is more tentative......
-chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空);
2007-9-18(#5707@43)