(this post as a mark 23 July, 2009) my 2 cents; feels right now shoud be the time to hold something and wait it rocket up;
Just my own 2 cents , S&P will hit ~1200 points in next 6 months or so (now is 976) and mainly focus on below stock sections: Commodities (popular Metals like Copper, Aluminum (AA, AWC) steel (X), etc) US Real Estates (LEN, KBH, PHM, ARE, HCP, URE (2x ETF if you dare)) Just my own opinion, take your own risk; hold it (split your invest and do not gamble on 1 or 2 stocks only) I would do; given 50K cash 20K split on top 5 real estate stocks 20K on top 5 commodities 10 K as free cash for backup; I am now holding AA , KBH, LEN, PHM, X bought around 2 weeks ago; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-7-23
(this post as a mark 23 July, 2009) my 2 cents; feels right now shoud be the time to hold something and wait it rocket up;
not sure why so many folks loves day trade or very short term buy/sell operations; how many of you can even beat the index percent from last 4 months;
due to US market is so violent that designed to kill the short-term guys; (it's either open with a big gap up or big gap down, you lose the most delirious part when the market rocket up and you will burned usually by the big drop ) you bet right today for a few percent or even 10% grow, then tomorrow lose another 8% or even more; Eventually the S&P and DOW will go back to its previous points but you may gain very little from those frequent trades; WTN.to from it's Mar 9th 0.44 to today's 2.94 (23 July) close, almost 700% , how many of us even doubled your money in that period; most of us are exactly make ourself in the trap of the big captial ( or market manipulators) 6 months later, when S&P go above 1200 points, tell me how much you earned from now on by doing these many trades; good day trader not only need the excellent telent and strategy, too the platform is also crutial, most of us don't have that kind of platform to beat with the big captial or fund manager; so, most of us doomed to lose in these day trade battles; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-7-23
not sure why so many folks loves day trade or very short term buy/sell operations; how many of you can even beat the index percent from last 4 months;
ding
-samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-7-27
Ding; S&P will reach 1200 easily in next 6 months, why don't you hold something and wait for the pay back; see my post;
-samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-7-30
Good point. is it too late to buy and hold now? thanks
-livein(tryit) 2009-8-28
bac up 20% last few days, how much you made, day traders; BAC will up to 20 $ at least twice in 1 year, and 30$ in antoher year, will be around 50 in 3 years;
but, can you be patient enough hold it? I have some bought at 6$, will hold it next few years; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-1
looks back will reach 20$ much sooner than I said;
-samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-4
so far your positions look great. but
it all based on the right judgment of the market. yes, you will make big money if the market goes as you predict. what if you made the wrong prediction? what if SPX went to 800 instead of 1200? would you stop gain/loss? would you buy some options to hedge? -gszy(灌水888) 2009-8-1
It's a nice reminder, but I think he will learn the lesson by himself
-mario(mario) 2009-8-1
be patient, let wait and see; will tell you why when it reaches there;
it's not prediction, it's the market rule I have watched for over 20 years; when everybody still scared, you should greedy; whey everybody confident and very optimistic, you should be scared -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-3
GREAT. THANKS.
-gszy(灌水888) 2009-8-3
才看到, Thanks!
-haah(木头。空.满.空) 2009-8-3
Thanks.
-travel05(闭着眼买) 2009-8-3
great! please post more info.
-watcher(watcher) 2009-8-5
ding
-samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-7
not for investors but for gamblers; FRE, FNM, ABK is up and down creasy, can make you very excited;
if you dare to hold them for 3 years separately, even 1 or 2 fail, you will be shocked by how many times they can grow; (btw, all of them are around $1 as per Aug, 2009) -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-7
ding
-samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-12
it is really good point. I don't like DT , but what i did is like that . Unfortunately i only have Canadian account , if you don't mind , could you please suggest some canada stocks in different fields. Thanks a lot.
-xierfan(xier) 2009-8-24
towards my direction; now just hold; anything, see my post inside;
if you dare; Category: Finance: Low Risk(C , BAC, ING, RF), High Risk( FRE, FNM, ABK, MBI, AIG) Real Estates: Low (LEN, PHM, DHI, KBH) High (BZH , BEE, MPG) R.E.I.T (Real Estate Investemnt Trust): Low(PEI, DDR, MAC) Commodity: Low( AA, CENX, AWC, X ) will have at least 50% from now to up with those marked as low risk; and for those High Risk I marked , can get at least 100% but on your own; just reminding that I hold pretty much each every of above ones , but you are on your own; people may have differnt idea and buy/sell method; make your investment money separately on different stocks will for sure reduce the best profit possible, but for sure reduce your risk as well; I split them not only on sections but even within the same section I split; I may lose money if 1 or 2 of them fail, but I will for sure get pay-back for long run; Now (may past a little bit since 9 Mar, 2009) will be the kind of investiment opportunity will not be see in your whole life; Do you see C ever down below $5 since you born? so, why hesitate to hold? just my own 2 cents; I will keep post when I sense that I should clear my positions; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-24
towards my direction; now just hold; anything, see my post inside;
Do you see big five bankrupt before 2008 in the past 100 years? so why worry they will bankrupt. That is the same logic for C. Nothing is impossible. All you stock could go to double, but before that, it may cut in half.
-yong(yang) 2009-8-24
I believes that in stock market only god can catch the absolute bottom; I only can catch relative low; and just my 2 cents and wish each ever of you can grab this historical chance;
I still have C got at 1.5$ and BAC got around 6$ and ING around 4$, BCS around 5$ , FRE at 76 cents and none of them at absolute bottom ; let me hold another 3 years then will talk with you again; And besides, before this March, you are right about C; it might go bankrupt, but from now on; you can’t be right anymore, it will be impossible for C to go down; Let's just wait and see the final result in next 3 years; stock market is running under the psychological influence of numerous individuals let you and me; if you know people then you will know the market; Regardless what we do now, you don’t have too many opportunities like now that you can get so many good things at this unbelievable cheap price; That’s the only thing I know and I want to take this once or twice per life time chances; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-24
I believes that in stock market only god can catch the absolute bottom; I only can catch relative low; and just my 2 cents and wish each ever of you can grab this historical chance;
Do not have the same investing strategy but just want to comment on one point "Do you see C ever down below $5 since you born? so, why hesitate to hold?"
Actually, C now has 4 times as many shares as before it collapsed. You do the math so it is not really cheap. But "The market can stay irrational long before you stay solvent". I agree we need to go with the trend so that is why I hold C. But one thing to remember is to stay close to the exit door when the music stops. -ffree(aleverage) 2009-8-25
thanks, that I will do; personally speaking, I like BAC rather than C; the only thing people don't need to worry is that Gov is also in common shares of C; that will lead the uniqueness of C; let's wait and see how high it can go;
-samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-25
And I mean if US Govement is the boss of something , usually it never lose in the game;
rise of the FRE and FNM too will finally prove who is the real boss of US market including Wall Street; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-25
Ding; please keep an close eye on my financial list symbols
-samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-27
finance; finance; finance; ABK, MBI, AIG, PMI, ING, C, BAC, RF, FNF; take your chances; don't miss it;
before March 9, very easy to lose money on holding anything; Now, very easy to gain just on holding something; this called the tide suffer, don't predict how high the tide can go; just watch, follow, and react on the fact; once finance system got stablized, next will be the long bull for US housing, commodity market; please see above my post that catogarized the risk level on the list; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-8-28
sigh, if US $ keep geting weak; Oil will soon above 80$ and everything will have to go up sharply, $ figure wise; finance, commodity, real-estate, everything has a price tag;
-samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-10
forget pull back; how about below stocks; from what I can see all can go up at least 5 times in next 3 years;
Below may go up to 10 times in next few years (very high risk, may wipe off due to bankcrupt) : ABK, ETFC, AIG, FRE, FNM, BEE, MPG, DPTR below may go up to > 5 times in next few years: (high risk) PLD, PEI, DDR (group R.E.I.T) C NG, HL (Gold, mineing) NCS (building material) YRCW (trucking service) LCC(AirLine) BZH, HOV(real estate) PMI, MBI, RF (Finance) below may go up to > 3 times in next few years (middle risk): AA, CENX, X (group commodity) PHM, LEN, KBH, DHI BAC, ING below may go up to > 2 times (very low risk) BA, MS, WFC, AXP, yahoo, or any one in index of S&P, or Dow 30 index please feel free to share your good stocks; just too many good stocks there; this and next year will be the easist year in your life to find a stock that can grow 10 times in 3 years; wish you all the best, don't miss it; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-10
forget pull back; how about below stocks; from what I can see all can go up at least 5 times in next 3 years;
Good post. Do you have any similar TSX stock list? thanks
-livein(tryit) 2009-9-10
sorry; don't have; personal opinion is focus on whatever concrete; commodity, oil, gas, real-estate, finance ( I don't like Canada big 5 banks though, not much space there left to up) ;
why TD is $66 C$ and C only at 4.5 don't think TD is 15 times better than C just my own opinion; I hold everything US; so far US still the world engine (may future replace by PRC, India, Eur union) but none of them in sight yet; Canada commodities and resources should have huge potentials; though some them already quite expensive already; stock price wise; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-10
NCS, DRYS, YRCW, LCC now on my list of 5 times target price in next few years
-samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-12
in UNG first wave, 10.08$/share;
see you 9 to 10 months later; should have at least 70% gain; just own opinion, your life your choice; I still believe that at these many stocks at these historical floor prices; the only thing left for MM to do is how to convince people that the stocks now just too expensive to hold; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-12
so many people wait for the market to pull back; if I am MM I would just do whatever but don't give them any chance; and meantime make them feel they are right, scare them to death to hold on anything cheap;
this exactly the current news, media, market trying to achieve and already achived; we will realize that 2 years later; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-12
Sam, no doubt you are one of this forum's best stock strategists. However, I will have to disagree with some of your views based on the fact the fundamentals are not there to justify higher stock prices even in a few years down the road.
- First of all you like to use C and BAC as examples that we missed the best buying opportunities. I would argue we really missed GS when it was around $50 or MS below $6. The reason is even today the best bank analysts have to agree they could not analyze C or BAC's balance sheet. On the other hand, for GS, their conservative estimate of GS's earning power is $30 per share next year. Therefore, the chances of C going down to $1 or BAC below $10 are much much greater than GS going back to $50. So, if you bought GS at $50, you would have the same capital appreciation as C at $1 but you would have tremendous more upside potential with GS. If you predict C to go above $10, that would translate GS to be $500. Which one is more reasonable? I would say neither. - Second of all, historical data can be misleading and do not have any comparison to today's price. With the easy credit gone for many years, I just wonder where the earning power comes from for banks? Whitney Meridith still predicts that the house price would go down another 50%. - You rarely talk about your screening metrics for stocks besides historical data. How could you predict you can earn > 100% return? Just remember the best money manager of all times only had about 20% return annually. No offense. Happy investing ! -ffree(aleverage) 2009-9-13
Sam, no doubt you are one of this forum's best stock strategists. However, I will have to disagree with some of your views based on the fact the fundamentals are not there to justify higher stock prices even in a few years down the road.
+
-xiaobudianer(小不点儿) 2009-9-13
as you said we already missed the best in time for GS and MS, my post is base on current fact; including current marekt situation, stock price, people's pychological status;
I don't have proof and I neither don't want to convince people what to do or what to hold; due to everybody is smart and when they make decision they definitely pick up the one they think is the best; but my vision is very simple; for financial institutions, crsis lead to the samll banks/investment firms die out ( I believe you already see that from news, just last Friday, 3 other small banks fail, cost FDIC 2.7B bla bla ...), people may see this is bad news to financials, I see this is a very good news to those super careers; smalls die out so the bigs will shine and share the whole market again and with less competitions; including your GS, I don't doubt it futures; but my own idea is buy something really cheap and worth to hold; GS if as your said go to 500$ , that could become a reality but first it has to reach its historical high; which is around 250 and now it's 174$ , I would not hold it now, probably will buy it when it go above its historical high; I am greedy too, I need something can grow 5 to 10 times but not something only 2 to 3 times; I found a lot of them and share a quite a few, the only thing left if for you to decide whether you want to be a day trader and long term investor; meantime, for any current stock, if it can go above it's historical high, it has to be outstanding; GS may be the one, but I don't have ability to filter them out, and I will go for cheaper ones that I see has huge potentials; anyway, don't only focus on BAC and C that I mentioned, there are tons of good stocks worth holding; if you disagree with me, that's fine; let wait and see; hopefully, your GS eventiually go to 500$ and my BAC go above 60 ; (as I already said in other post I am not quite a C fans) but please just close door and think silently, why people would like to hold C at 50$ per share but don't dare to hold it now at 4$ ; the MM thoroughly understand the common peoples' psychological weakness, that is greedy and fear; from what I can see know, the only thing for MM to do is to let common people fear and think everything is still too expensive to hold; last point, I listen to no analyst, I don't even bother to see their publishes; if you and me can't control the analyst, I believe you know who can control them; the MM with billions of $ can; analyst speak not for truth but for money they earned; I don't blame on them, the system make them so; they just can't tell you (or common poeple like us the truth), due to the stock market really not a place that majority of common poeple can gain; for me, the whole market is so complex but meantime very simple; regardless MM use whatever means (including government agencys, medias, website, news) try to make common people buy at high or sell at low; as long as you can buy at low and hold with no fear, sell at high with no greedy; you can gain; I see now market just too low; MM to push it up is way easier to make it down, plus even O8M US govenment want it high; so don't worry when you hold the right thing; before 9th, March, 2009, for 2 years, almost always wrong when buy and hold anything; too, after that, short or empty should almost always wrong; please take this 100 year once opportunity; don't miss it; wish we all win; besides, I am an opportunist too, few days ago, I posted and ask who can help on Natural GAS stocks, and thanks for 木头。空.满.空 suggest me DPTR; it matches to my criteria, and I didn't think more and bought some, and now I have them doubled (actually already out half, and got another half shares for free, and I will hold them for next 2 years, and sell it whnever it reachs 5 times my in price, it will in 2 years, you ask me why, I think I knew but don't know how to share, please abide me wait if eventiually it's up there 5 times then proof my thought is right then I will explain to the forum, otherwise, just another misleading useless personal opinion) BTW, I replyed and thanks 木头。空.满.空 for 3 times due to you know that DPTR doubled in 3 days after I bought it in the morning; and I almost out when it up to 50% in one day, but I told myself, nowdays due to so many people want a pull back then greedy must not a sin now; I should hold it; and the result is clearly right; I will hold my DPTR for next few years, I just can't throw a stock out when it's creasy at the floor price; it go up must be a reason; MM don't push a stock rocket high if they themself not confident with it; they are smart than me and they already done the analysis for me; I select stocks with no certian rules, and usually conbine its 1) industry future potentials (that's why I like BA, due to no other competiter big/grow enough to peek it's market so far except Air Bus, and I will change if there is on surface on the market) 2) select stock by its main product price DPTR is the one due to Natural GAS just too low to miss it; (though I don't know where is the final N gas price before it up, possibiltiy to long to win is way bigger than now do short on natural gas 13.7$/Unit last July, now is 2.9$/Unit, may go down to 2.4$ or lower, but very soon) 3) select sotck by its future potentials; BAC is the one, I may wrong; but historically proved that the biggest winner usually are those who merge/eat other companies alive ones; winner takes all, loser already died; too, a lot of other aspects I consider, e.g can't be too small and better be the major players in their section/industry, can't be too high or too stable like JNJ (Johnson & Johnson ), it's good but 5 years high at 72 $ and now already 60.42$ last close, not my favourite; just don't have too much space to go; historicall high is difficult to break unless it has new shining point; F (ford) I would not buy regadless how analyst sugget buy buy buy last few weeks and upgrade it; I see US auto market no potentials at all unless they show me some firm proof (automakers, plus their greedy union, just not my interest) ; anyway, the altermate goal is to gain or at least hope to gain once I hold it; so I always think twice on my selections; can I hold them overnight and sleep sound and getting happier when times pass by; so far they are good; one last thing, in stock market, you can't do anything when you think you are accurate and 100% confirmed; e.g I don't think I can get all the I want ( I just not at that level to have those real facts) so, I have to admit that I do stock follow below 2 simple rules 1) react on current so called fact I have; Yesterday right choice may prove today is wrong, if things change to the way I don't like , then dump it; 2) what is the possibility now; ~62 $ is AIG high peak price, now it's ~2 $ 62-2/62 ~ 97% , so very simple, hold it should have a bigger chance of winning; just a example, due to other uncertainty make me think AIG so far is best for short term gamble but not good for long term investing; (but, if fact changed when time pass by, I too may change on the view of AIG if I see good sign on it) my own 2 cnets, please make your mind your own; all the best to all my frinends here; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-13
as you said we already missed the best in time for GS and MS, my post is base on current fact; including current marekt situation, stock price, people's pychological status;
BTW, when the fact the fundamentals are all there, then it will be too late; the stock market is all about who can accurately/or you call it luckly foresee the future; clost to it, I will gain, far off it, I will lose;
for example; will you buy c or BAC and hold it today if we allow you back to 9th Mar, 2009? the answer is yes, but why seldom people can achieve this? very simple, at 9th, Mar, 2009; MM, Wall street, almost everything (media, news, .... ) try to convince us that BAC and C will go bankcrupt; but it not; did we realize that? no, most of us not; due to we so trustul to those so called (analyst, news, media, etc) I saw quite a lot of people still empty and holding nothing afer March; and hoping the market will go down sharply to prove that they are right on the technical pull-back they are expecting; and so what, the market for sure will eventiually pull-back to let them think they are right; but you already lost and fooled again by MM if you don't even doubled your money in last 6 months so far stright up (so many stocks go up more than 5 times already, even C get 4 times over) ; If you can't make money when market is up, most likely you will lose when market is down again; that's why I say the only thing so far MM need to do is to convince people that everything just too expensive to hold; they are doing this now; they will finally recommend you to buy; but usually when stocks back almost to their high again; and you will realize it and sorry, too late; all the best; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-13
BTW, when the fact the fundamentals are all there, then it will be too late; the stock market is all about who can accurately/or you call it luckly foresee the future; clost to it, I will gain, far off it, I will lose;
< Whitney Meridith still predicts that the house price would go down another 50%.> Please don't listen to them;
GS analyst predict the Oil will go up to 200 when it's 147 and ask their clients to buy, buy, buy; GS analyst also predict the oild will go bleow 20$ when it's 33 and suggest their clients to sell, sell, sell; very funny, so far if I do short term trading, I only pick those ones that most analysts say that you should sell them; the point is very simple; they are not working for you to make you earn money and happy; they work for their big boss to pay them cheque and make themself happy; so , they just can't tell you the truth ; On the oppsite said, I see in next few years, it will be US real eastate era again; my own point of view, the housing bottom already passed (in US) ; you will not regret if you hold some of the valuable US real-estate stocks for next few years; some of them will up 3 to 5 times easily; don't agree with me; ok with that; at least you should know the US real-estate already down that many years; your chance to do long and win should better than do short; too, please pay attention to the Natural Gas, if select the right stocks relate to it; 100% in next 9 to 12 months almost certain; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-13
< Whitney Meridith still predicts that the house price would go down another 50%.> Please don't listen to them;
the only thing left for MM to do is how to make people still think everything just too expensive to hold; the fun party is about to start;
close the door and think yourself; will you just let this historical opportunity slip through your fingers; tons of stocks at their 10 to 15% of hitorical high price; and people think the market just too expensive ? to go on; that's rediculous; each fast pull-back will be the start point of next high; Market just not at the average price level that should pull back soon; just my own 2 cents, your money your decision -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-15
for short term risk takers; the most profitable stocks in market now should be the ones around >2.5 and < 5.0; due to they are off the backcrupt zone and has to go up sharply; (some of my stocks posted below to that group)
please don't miss the ride, your money your decison; -samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-16
Ding; so far market going well, didn't go anywhere clearly, that give you safety; do the stocks than do the index (don't care about index for now) ;
-samqyang(Kingkong) 2009-9-21