基本数据和假设: 人口1M, 感染率 4.4% (加拿大数据), 死亡率 1.7% (加拿大数据), 完全疫苗接种率 70%, 疫苗有效性(CDC): 降低感染率 6倍, 降低死亡率 11 倍。
局限性: 政府数据, fake media, 不考虑太多的复杂性, 比如感染率死亡率包括了整个pandemic的数据, 疫苗有效率没有年龄框框。疫苗的有效性随时间变化不做考虑 。 总之 又粗又raw, 只是个信封背后的估计, 不能要求太高。一贯粗心, 计算如有错误, 请指正。
70%接种人群, 假如没接种, 感染人数应该是700000 x 4.4%= 30800, 死亡人数 30800x 1.7%= 524. 这些人接种了疫苗, break thru感染人数 30800/6=5133, break thru 死亡人数 524/11= 48
所以从绝对人数上, 一个1M人口的城市 会看到 5133 个完全接种疫苗后感染的病例, 48个完全接种后死亡病例 (RIP General Powell), 足够反疫苗的说一阵儿。
拯救了多少人? 524-48=476 人免于死亡。
means it saves more. And your data is for current. I hope I will be proving wrong but if I was right, by Dec we will see waves of vaxx infected, and whatever you "saved" now will be lost later. I sincerely hope vaxx works but I got to face the reality. Israel's data just not go vaxx's way.
And this is not even counting vaxx injuries.
Vaxx failed. sooner or later people will realize this. In fact, I bet the rejection of booster will be overwhelming. Time will tell. We won't need to wait long to see it.