Topic: BIDU Will Likely Trade Down on Disappointing Guidance @枫下论坛 The Rolia Forum

BIDU Will Likely Trade Down on Disappointing Guidance -paultpang(Paultpang); 2007-10-26 {2122} (#8322@43)
BIDU Will Likely Trade Down on Disappointing Guidance
Source: BIDU 3Q07 SERIES
What's the Focus. Baidu reported Q3 2007 earnings. The numbers were OK, but not great. As we pointed out in our Baidu 3Q07 Preview Report (5), investors should focus on next quarter (Q4) revenue guidance and this quarter's (Q3) actual revenue.
Results vs. Consensus. The table below shows Baidu's historical earnings results and next-day performance since its IPO. Based on the table, Baidu's Q3 revenue beat Wall Street consensus by 1.2%, and the mid-point of next quarter revenue guidance was in-line with consensus.
Less Impressive than Prior Two Quarters. These results are clearly not as impressive as those for the prior two quarters: In 1Q07, Baidu's revenue beat consensus by 3.7%, and guidance mid-point beat consensus by 12.6%. In 2Q07, Baidu's revenue beat consensus by 7.0%, and guidance mid-point beat consensus by 9.9%. This time, in 3Q07, these two numbers are much lower at 1.2% and 0.0%.
BIDU Will Likely Trade Down on Oct 26th. We believe investors are disappointed by the guidance because its mid-point failed to beat consensus. As a result, Baidu's shares will likely trade down on Oct 26th. As we pointed out in our Baidu 3Q07 Preview Report (5), next quarter revenue guidance is the BEST indicator for BIDU's next-day performance with a 75% hit ratio (=6/8).
Table: Baidu (BIDU) Historical Earnings and Next-day Performance Since IPO
Other reports in our BIDU 3Q07 SERIES
(1): Baidu Maintained 4-1 Traffic Lead Over Google China
(2): Search Queries Increased 4% vs. Q2
(3): Baidu Expanded User Market Share to ~70%
(4): Baidu Has 2x Google China's Advertisers
(5): Historical Trading Pattern Reveals Key Metrics to Watch
(6): Baidu Q3 Revenue Estimated to Be $66.7M by Analysys International

Bidu现在这个价位应该站不住，大家以为如何，打算空它。 -carelesswhisper(无心快语); 2007-10-26 (#8348@43)
Bidu P/E is 303, according to this P/E, Alibaba P/E should be what? Now Alibaba P/E is just 100. -huangwuca(一株青玉立千叶绿云委); 2007-10-26 (#8350@43)

You can buy some Yahoo, as it hold many shares of Alibaba, and itslef is also good. -huangwuca(一株青玉立千叶绿云委); 2007-10-26 (#8354@43)

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