本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Southeast Asian Stocks to Beat Asia, JPMorgan Says (Update3)

By Darren Boey

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Southeast Asian, Chinese and Hong Kong stocks will outperform other Asian markets next year as strengthening currencies boost consumer purchasing power, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Investors should favor these markets over South Korea and Taiwan, which are reliant on exports, and Australia, where interest rates are rising, Adrian Mowat, JPMorgan's Asian equities strategist, said in an interview. Asia as a whole will continue to lure money from overseas investors, he said.

``Our message is we get yet another very good year of equity returns,'' Mowat, 41, said. ``We have factors that have been helping our markets do well and making valuations go up and these factors are still in place.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index has climbed 15 percent this year, about double its global equivalent, the MSCI World Index, as investors bet on stronger earnings growth in a region that's home to China and India, the two fastest growing major economies. The Asian benchmark is set to beat its global counterpart for the fourth year in five.

``People are very keen on the outlook for the Asian region,'' Mowat said. ``Our economies are very strong, inflation is building.''

Singapore's Straits Times Index is forecast to rise 33 percent by the end of 2008 from its Nov. 9 level, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is estimated to increase 22 percent, Mowat said. That contrasts with 7 percent for Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index and 16 percent for South Korea's Kospi.

`Top Picks'

Shares of Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong such as China Mobile Ltd., the world's largest mobile-phone operator by users, are among JPMorgan's ``top picks,'' according to Mowat's latest report.

Also on the list are Angang Steel Co., the largest Chinese steelmaker that's listed in Hong Kong, Singapore's Keppel Corp., the world's biggest oil-rig builder, and Bank of the Philippine Islands, the nation's largest lender by market value.

Strengthening currencies in countries such as China, Singapore and the Philippines will increase the purchasing power of residents in those countries, said Mowat, who joined JPMorgan in 2002 from Martin Currie Investment Management. Currency gains boost the value of assets in dollar terms as well as returns for dollar-based investors.
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