本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Investment Thesis For Silver

We maintain our positive outlook for silver in the short-to-medium term (2-3 years), based on:
1. Continued fundamental outlook for a weaker U.S. dollar, which we believe in turn will likely result in stronger precious metal prices (both gold and silver).
2. Fundamentals for silver remaining positive, with demand increases for industrial and investment segments forecast to more than offset continuing decline in photographic demand.
3. Our concerns for increased primary silver supply remains a few years out, as does our expectations for increased by-product silver supply esulting from high price levels seen in gold, copper, lead and zinc.

We employ a forward strip approach to forecasting future silver prices, using the current forward strip for silver (as determined by our RBC bullion traders in the U.K.) which is reviewed periodically. Our forecasts remain unchanged from last quarter: $12.75/oz for 2007, $13.00/oz in 2008, and $13.50/oz for 2009.

VALUATIONS – Summer Weakness… A Time To Increase Exposure To The Group
We look for precious metals such as gold and silver to move sideways or drift lower over the summer months, as physical demand from jewelry manufacturers tends to show a period of seasonal weakness. Later in the summer or early in the fall, demand usually returns as anufacturers replenish inventories to create the jewelry required to meet demand later in the year, from Indian wedding season (OCT-NOV), Christmas (DEC), and Chinese New Year (JAN-FEB). While the effect is less pronounced in silver than in gold (due to the larger industrial component of physical demand), a similar argument can be forwarded with respect to the lectronics
industry, whereby sales of cell phones and computers also have a late year surge (Christmas), and thus the silver required in the manufacture of the keyboards for these items can arguably also weaken somewhat during the summer months. While these seasonal influences do not specifically cause commodity price weakness, our view is the lack of strong physical demand can make bullish upwards moves in the precious metals related to speculative investment demand difficult.
We believe silver equities continue to lag the H1/07 recovery in silver prices, with most of the group trading at levels that we estimate still reflect a $9-$11/oz long-term silver price (compared to the current spot price of $13.73/oz). With our expectation of continued strength in silver prices, we see opportunity for significant share price returns in most of our coverage group.

Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW-NYSE; TSX, O, AR) is one of our preferred silver stocks, which gives exposure to the only pure play equity for silver, and the recent removal of an overhang in the shares (as investors were concerned about a large equity financing to fund the acquisition of the Peñasquito silver stream royalty). We expect SLW shares to reclaim the above average leverage to the silver price seen during 2005 and most of 2006 later this year.

We also continue to see good return potential in the shares of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS-NASDAQ, PAA-TSX, O, AR), a company with above average growth prospects that are bearing fruit over the next several quarters (new silver mines start ups this year and next), coupled with a proven management and operating team (an attribute that is increasing in scarcity).更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net