Topic: 尽管我认为牛在周五站了上风，周五的反转使得NOV/21日开始的RALLY得以延续到下周。但是，还是有一些时刻值得做多人士关注的。只是提个醒，各方面的意见都听听，应该没有坏处。 @枫下论坛 The Rolia Forum

尽管我认为牛在周五站了上风，周五的反转使得NOV/21日开始的RALLY得以延续到下周。但是，还是有一些时刻值得做多人士关注的。只是提个醒，各方面的意见都听听，应该没有坏处。 -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-6 (#61357@43)

Foreclosures soar 76% to record 1.35 million -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-6 (#61358@43)
Stocks Market: More pain, more gains -- Stocks rallied toward the end of last week despite abysmal news on the economy. -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-6 (#61359@43)
Job picture could get even worse -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-6 (#61360@43)
'The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets' or 'the time to be greedy is when others are fearful'. No bottom is in place as long as the average investor displays a buy-and hold sentimentality. -moneygrubber(Angler); 2008-12-6 (#61361@43)

如果感到应该抄底的时候，我一定会抄的。但是，现在离开前次底部已经>15%。熊市抄底的诀窍是，“破前次低点3~5%，抢先进入”。下次机会来的时候，我一定会继续抄底的。但是，抢反弹，我以前失败得太多了，血泪经验告诉我，亏得概率大。让别人做这个“小牛”吧。 -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-7 (#61369@43)

Ding^ -arcong(雪中莲); 2008-12-7 (#61377@43)
误导. -ccloafer(瓦盆洗手∞℉$); 2008-12-7 (#61434@43)

哪里误导？目前这个市场，牛眼看牛，熊眼看熊。我觉得风险，尽管我承认市场INSANE，但是，我可以不参与。所以，对错跟我都没有关系。你如果愿意承担风险，做多营利的机会还是有的。凡是，风险大到我不愿意承受的地步。 -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-7 (#61435@43)

你的抢反弹策略. 如果你这样做反弹, 多数情况下是踏空, 少数不踏空的时候多数的结果是惨死. 破位抢反弹是等出来的, 其它信号让你买, 破位只是提供了进入点. 而且要决定破位是否买入, 重要的不是百分之多少, 是对follow through的感觉. -ccloafer(瓦盆洗手∞℉$); 2008-12-7 (#61437@43)

我说的点位是算出来的。根据以往破位后大概的位置(不要看双倍的H*U的价格(偏离太大_。看INDEX的位置)。另外一个，看当时的盘中气氛。误差在3%左右。体现到H*U在10%以内。最坏的记录是20%。但是，由于H*U反弹后都超过35%，所以就能营利。 -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-7 (#61438@43)

什么是 H*U ? -yueren(我爱伦巴); 2008-12-7 (#61454@43)

忘记说了，当然要看信号买了。本贴是为了着重说明抢反弹劾抄底的区别。关于抄底的帖子，等到机会来了我再奉献出来供大家讨论。还是那句话，目前这个点位，做多估计只有5%空间，但是如果跌，可能会从目前位置会跌下20%。不上算。 -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-7 (#61439@43)
对了。你去查一下我在这个坛子上抢反弹的帖子。我一般都是在接近支撑的时候开始出帖子。而且也开始活跃。我抄底，从来没有亏过手。很多同学搞不清抄底和抢反弹得区别。抄底的原则，持股不超过3天。以后再说吧。 -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-7 (#61455@43)

下次抢反弹记得提前约定! -yueren(我爱伦巴); 2008-12-7 (#61457@43)
以后再说吧. 你大无畏. 不是抄底无畏, 是讲道理无畏. 先做两年再说吧. -ccloafer(瓦盆洗手∞℉$); 2008-12-7 (#61458@43)

别说这个论坛了，周五的走势，把一些Professional DTer都搞糊涂了。转个帖子给你看。 -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-7 {1531} (#61436@43)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛05
DecBlank Blank (Updated)
By: Mohan In: Trading Blog
After two weeks of dismal data and big rallies in 8 of the last 10 trading days, one could conclude that the market has priced in all the bad news there is to come. But I am stubborn and refuse to accept it until credit markets tell me that this rally is for real. Today Markit iTraxx European Crossover index (non-investment grade corporate bonds) closed at 1096 bid and 1098 ask, which is nearly 80 bps higher than yesterday. This is indicating impending corporate defaults in Europe.

Today’s rally in the face of dismal job numbers is very impressive. Volume is decent but nothing great to write home about. However, price action trumps everything.

On a personal note, I am still 100% short via various instruments. All of them are under water. I should have quit when I was way ahead just two weeks ago. My mind is now blank as I am nursing my wounds (in good fun). Today’s intraday comments exceeded 400 and it is getting crowded over there.

Updated: 10:30 PM, Dec 5

While watching the Fast Money show on CNBC today, I noted the following:

All the traders are bullish (not for fundamental reasons, of course). It is exactly opposite of their sentiment on Nov 20.
When asked if the 533,000 jobs lost in November is a lagging indicator, Mohammad El-Erian of Pimco said, on the contrary, when the number is so large it can be a LEADING indicator. This huge number can in fact have a significant impact by itself interms of consumer behavior and such.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

Let us take a close look at the dark signs in the jobless numbers - "It now looks like the economy will contract at a rate of as much as 5% in this quarter" -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-7 (#61363@43)
Nearly 1 in 10 mortgages in trouble -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-7 (#61366@43)
好了，唯一的好消息就是三大车厂年底死不了。但是，做多的风险是很高的。很多人甚至宣称中期牛。我实在看不出，市场能长久地脱离基本面。不如“看多不做多，等别人拉高股价，降低做空的成本，这比抢反弹要安全省心的多”。无论熊牛，各位好运。我看我需要休息一阵子了。 -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-7 (#61367@43)

Chapter 7离bankruptcy还有2年, 即使Chapter 11到公司瓦解消失也要至少1年呢, 怎能说死就死呢? -2yue(二月莺飞); 2008-12-7 (#61383@43)

我说的死，就是破产保护。15B可以保证GM活到3月份。如果没有这个钱，年底GM就得宣布破产保护。 -it.uncle(路遥.始创股市两头论); 2008-12-7 (#61387@43)

路遥老大不要休息啊，不做股票也做一下实事分析，让我们新人学习。对了今天再WARDEN AND HIGHWAY 7那的WAREHOUSE。买了好多化妆品啊。觉得买的人很多，排队排了好久。看来经济也不是想的那么差啊。 -newcomer1981(好学的新手); 2008-12-7 (#61468@43)

囤积化妆品？小心公安来找你。 -frog123(弹棉花); 2008-12-7 (#61470@43)

不止化妆品，还有很多牙膏啊，牙刷啊，洗头水啊，日常用品。这里的大侠也要用的吧，不然明天4点后也买些。很便宜的说。听说男人用香水可以刺激女性荷尔蒙分泌，棉花也去买些，涂的香香的，好诱惑MM. -newcomer1981(好学的新手); 2008-12-7 (#61484@43)

如果是通缩，你就买亏了，物价还会继续跌。 -frog123(弹棉花); 2008-12-8 (#61527@43)

这话说的，棉花啊，棉花。要是你诱惑到MM了，什么钱挣不到？再说那么大雪能不出门则不出门。最好这个冬天都不用出门。我没换到雪胎，危险。去年我就撞费了一辆，现在的TICKET还没解决哪！ -newcomer1981(好学的新手); 2008-12-8 (#61535@43)

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