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  • Question: Gold spot price is climbing, but why gold stock price is sliding now? -chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空); 2007-9-18 (#5692@43)
    • it need time to catch up. -seekus(蓦然回首...); 2007-9-18 (#5694@43)
    • Gold stocks leg behind the bullion, which is the bearish sign. -jim366(金); 2007-9-18 {676} (#5697@43)
      If FED sould has no rate cut. The gold and gold stocks would be free drop;

      If FED sould has a 0.25% of rate cut, which is likely odd. MM would not be happy because the run-up of gold and gold stocks in past two weeks have already count in. he gold and gold stocks would drop a lot;

      If FED sould has a 0.5%% of rate cut (this odd is low), which is already priced in the gold sectors. MM would take profit. The gold and gold stocks would drop as well;

      If FED sould has a 0.75%% of rate cut (this odd is almost impossible), which would be supricesd. Only in this case, the gold and gold stocks would go up a huge.

      This is what is happening in the gold stocks
      • Thanks Jim! That is to say that there is a Big chance Gold stock might drop!... .25 cut is the most possible result..... -chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空); 2007-9-18 (#5698@43)
      • Thanks Jim. What about the real estate stock? The rate change will have big effect on housing market. -fidofido(哈哈); 2007-9-18 (#5700@43)
        • No one cares about real estate? It's direct affected by the rate. -fidofido(哈哈); 2007-9-18 (#5705@43)
          • not familiar with them but i dont think rate cut will have immediate effect on them... wont recover so quick... -chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空); 2007-9-18 (#5706@43)
            • I mean if rate is unchanged or only .25% cut, will this market go from bad to worse? -fidofido(哈哈); 2007-9-18 (#5708@43)
              • .25's cut i think is really weak for real estate mkt... somebody predicts housing price in us will keep going down one more year. also, the detailed figure about losses from subprime mortgage crisis is not totally calculated yet. -chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空); 2007-9-18 (#5713@43)
          • Real estate is definitely the loser. It may have a bounce from oversold condition. But it is overal trend is down. -jeffl(jeffl); 2007-9-18 {178} (#5709@43)
            No matter how much FED is going to cut this time is not enough to to save real estate. Unless FED keeps cutting like crazy as Greenspan did in 2001. The likelihood is too remote.
            • So is it good to keep my SHORT position? -fidofido(哈哈); 2007-9-18 (#5710@43)
              • Can't answer your questions since I don't know your situation. I have some short positions on financials as hedge to some Chinese stocks I hold. -jeffl(jeffl); 2007-9-18 (#5716@43)
            • agree. -chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空); 2007-9-18 (#5711@43)
      • Gold correction back to 680-690 after announcement? -chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空); 2007-9-18 {1046} (#5702@43)
        本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛But Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report, considers gold as "seriously over bought" as a result of expectations for lower U.S. interest rates and financial concerns in the U.K.

        He said a correction to $680-$690 for gold prices is likely after the Fed announcement.
        But whatever the Fed does is "good for gold investors," he said in emailed remarks. If rates are cut, it'll confirm monetary will at the Fed and assure a new high for gold by year end, he said.

        And if rates are left unchanged, the "housing and mortgage debacle will continue to dominate financial markets," he said. "Gold is the only safe haven in such an environment."
        Given all that, Schmidt said $1,400-plus gold prices are "no longer a dream, but a reasonable expectation."

        Adding support to gold Tuesday, Governor Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said the Bank of Spain won't be selling more gold this year. Under the central bank's gold agreement the Spanish central bank had been the largest seller of gold this year, according to reports.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • I don't agree. -jeffl(jeffl); 2007-9-18 {593} (#5699@43)
      If FED has no rate cut - The stock market will crash. Gold is considered safe haven. Price goes up. This is unlikely to happen.

      If FED has a 0.25% of rate cut, which is likely odd. -- This is not enough to support the market rally. Market heads lower and gold continues its consolidation. But as more rate cuts are expected. Gold will go up afterwards.

      If FED has a 0.5%% or higher of rate cut (this odd is low). -- This is unexpected by the market. Market will have a big run up. This is also good for gold since now the market put more attention to inflation instead of credit crunch.
      • Seems like the stock market will go lower after the Fed meeting. Most likely the rate will keep unchanged, or .25% cut. No more cut this time. Otherwise US dollars is dead. -fidofido(哈哈); 2007-9-18 (#5701@43)
        • I think so... dollar dead but gold alive :) -chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空); 2007-9-18 (#5703@43)
        • How much is the rate cut is important. So is the FED's view towards the economy and inflation. -jeffl(jeffl); 2007-9-18 {168} (#5704@43)
          Bernanke is different from Greenspan. Greenspan just did what the market had expected. Bernanke is more creative, which makes it more difficult the predict the outcome.
          • Bernanke is more tentative...... -chu.ge(楚格, 海闊天空); 2007-9-18 (#5707@43)

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