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[给探长先生等房屋版的朋友们,你们如何看?]“如果外国买家放弃了加拿大房市,加拿大房市将会如何?” ( When foreign buyers abandon Canadian housing: Don Pittis)

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛以下是部分英文段落。

There is little doubt that overseas money has had an impact on the high cost of Canadian real estate. (毫无疑问,加拿大房市的风起云涌与外国买家的推波助澜关系密切。)

Even the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation appears to have conceded the fact. In a speech this week, CMHC president Evan Siddall said that despite having poor data on foreign ownership, it was likely pushing up the price of Canadian housing.

There are two things that are less clear that may be crucial to the value of your home. The first is the size and distribution of the effect. The second is what will happen when foreign ownership dries up or withdraws.
■CMHC says foreign buyers may be pushing up luxury housing prices
■Canada's housing market faces a looming demographic bubble


The fact that Canada does not have a good official estimate of how much foreign money is invested in Canadian housing is a scandal. Other countries assemble the information as a matter of course.

Anecdotal evidence

In Canada, even the head of the CMHC admits he is dependent on anecdotal information, partly because without making it a legal requirement, buyers may be unwilling to divulge their ownership status.

"Most of the available information is anecdotal. And the problem is that many foreign investors may prefer to hide their ownership," Siddall said in his speech this week.

Without an official way of gathering the data, private studies can be based on uncertain methods. They may fail to distinguish between investment by foreigners and purchases by new Canadians.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下家园 / 枫下觅巢 / [给探长先生等房屋版的朋友们,你们如何看?]“如果外国买家放弃了加拿大房市,加拿大房市将会如何?” ( When foreign buyers abandon Canadian housing: Don Pittis)
    本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛以下是部分英文段落。

    There is little doubt that overseas money has had an impact on the high cost of Canadian real estate. (毫无疑问,加拿大房市的风起云涌与外国买家的推波助澜关系密切。)

    Even the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation appears to have conceded the fact. In a speech this week, CMHC president Evan Siddall said that despite having poor data on foreign ownership, it was likely pushing up the price of Canadian housing.

    There are two things that are less clear that may be crucial to the value of your home. The first is the size and distribution of the effect. The second is what will happen when foreign ownership dries up or withdraws.
    ■CMHC says foreign buyers may be pushing up luxury housing prices
    ■Canada's housing market faces a looming demographic bubble


    The fact that Canada does not have a good official estimate of how much foreign money is invested in Canadian housing is a scandal. Other countries assemble the information as a matter of course.

    Anecdotal evidence

    In Canada, even the head of the CMHC admits he is dependent on anecdotal information, partly because without making it a legal requirement, buyers may be unwilling to divulge their ownership status.

    "Most of the available information is anecdotal. And the problem is that many foreign investors may prefer to hide their ownership," Siddall said in his speech this week.

    Without an official way of gathering the data, private studies can be based on uncertain methods. They may fail to distinguish between investment by foreigners and purchases by new Canadians.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • 管理这么大的一个国家,最忌讳的就是霹雳手段(如一刀切)。
      • 我一直有一个疑问:加拿大是一个大农村,房价的实际价值与出售价远远不成正比,完全是被抬高了。值得买那么多吗?性价比太不划算的。你说呢? +4
        • 全球一体化,这是不可逆转的大趋势。加拿大,只要不自外于整个世界,都会被发展(主观上也有发展的愿望)的。只要假以时日,大农村的外观也是会被改变的。—— 更不用说,加拿大的双核心:温哥华 和 多伦多 了!
          • 没见上次报导?加拿大经济前景不容乐观(DETERIORATING)。
            • 见啊。正式因为经济不景气,加拿大就更要外来资金,即使有许多资金是投入房市,也是拉动经济的主要引擎面。
              • 探长先生,那个报道说,之所以加拿大的经济前景不乐观,就是因为外国投资在加拿大减少了,加拿大出口订单也少了。
                • 对呀!油砂产业的投资减少,相关行业的投资减少,,,。房地产,还有底气排外?
                  • 房产可以独善其身吗?你看阿省的房价都啥样了呀。有时真为你担心呢,探长先生,你太乐观了。
                    • 阿省的房价,是因为阿省的经济面太过窄 —— 油砂和农产。
                      • 多伦多的外国投资也少了,难道对多伦多经济没有影响?
                        • 安省制造业正走下坡路,oshawa GM预计2017可能全部关闭。从几大银行的裁员来看,前景的确不好,但房价暴跌也不太可能。自住应该可以,炒房和投资房的确有风险了。
                    • 他不是乐观是工作需要,你懂的 +4
          • 全球一体化,那人能自由流动吗?如果可能,加拿大美国房价还得涨,中国房价一天内会暴跌回解放前!
        • 试试去中国大城市周围找个二三十亩的农庄?中国人不会不来,因为他们在这里得到的东西在中国得不到,可能永远也得不到,他们在中国能得到的,在这里基本能得到。
    • 如果联邦出台房市的“排外”政策,将会造成本国居民误判为政府打击房市—— 从而出现大面积抛盘(自住房套现、投资房抛售)造成房市短期内灾难。如业主失去对房市的信心,下坠将如自由落体。嘿嘿,俺的机会就来了!
      • 探长先生,没钱的时候,我们找你借,不准要我们的利息。 +2
      • 房价直上或直下,都是非常可怕的事情。。。
        • 是的,显得突兀。一突兀就失去了平衡,就危险了。
      • 探长心态好,富贵险中求。
        • 哪来的险啊。08年,险吗,事实证明不。2012年房贷新政收紧打压,险吗,事实证明不。
    • 外国买家为啥要放弃加拿大房市呢?
      • 天下没有不散的筵席?
        • 外国买家没有放弃加拿大的原始动力,除非加拿大不要他们、排挤他们。
          • 你看中国的房价,也在变动,难道加拿大可以维持永久不变,永远这么乐观下去?
            • 没有多少永久不变的东西。目前,加拿大房市,仍然还是可以值得投资人乐观的。
              • 还可以坚挺多久呢? +1
                • 短期看,5年,中期看10、15年,长期看,更好。—— 真真正正的地大物博啊!就是太缺人了啊!
                  • 真真正正的地大物博啊!就是太缺人了啊,所以房价暴跌是必然的 +1
                    • 目前是太缺房子啊!
                      • 有地盖房子是分分种的事情
                        • 你去雷湾盖几个房子,三干尺只卖二十万,你看看有人买吗?
          • 看楼主给的连接,读者评论还是有排华情绪的 +2
            • 社会的发展,必然有人跟不上,沦为 loser。
              • 社会上loser多了会很可怕, 马来西亚、印度、印尼。。。。等等国家都发生过严重的排华事件,印尼的排华事件最为触目惊心 +5
              • 中国的革命还不是没有财产的无产阶级(也就是楼上说的 loser)打土豪分田地
      • 有些人真没搞清楚外国人移民加拿大的目的。
    • It's not yet clear what the trigger might be for a turn from rising prices to decline.
      It could be rising interest rates. It could be the effect of our aging population. It could be an anticipation of those things as potential investors think they see the writing on the wall.
      • 人为地推高房价,水分太多,最后可能水泡泡破。
        • 人为地推高? 哪一件事不是 —— "人为" 的? 推高房价的,当然是人为的。
          • 但有些太离谱了吧?一个看上去乱七八糟的房子,居然可以炒作到一百万,最少也要80多万,离谱。
            • (历史地)回眸一下多伦多的房价发展轨迹吧!全球已经是一个大数的时代了!2013年2月4日,加拿大1分硬币退出货币流通, 下一步将会是5分硬币,,,,,。
              • 老实交代:多伦多到底是不是普通话土财主买房子多?
                • 越了解买家构成,对多伦多地产的未来就越有信心!
                • 普通话土豪,只是一部分。
      • 应该不是探长的Trigger-------『房市探报43』:抢战2016 ,从今天开始! —— “砰~!” (11-11 23:09)