Unlike during the oil market crash of 2014, low-priced oil cannot spur demand and economic activities that are restricted for public health reasons but is going straight into storage. Kayrros satellite measurements show global crude stocks surged by more than 100m barrels in the last month alone to 63 per cent of nameplate storage capacity.

The spread of confinement measures is accelerating the builds. No one knows for sure the actual level of maximum operating capacity because it has never been tested — perhaps 80 per cent of nameplate. We may soon find out.

Given the amount of advance planning needed to boost production, one would have expected Saudi stocks to fall as the kingdom increases supply, at least initially. But Saudi inventories have jumped since the start of the price war.

This suggests that the Russian and Saudi oil ministers walked into their fateful meeting earlier this month fully prepared for a supply surge. The fact that Riyadh and Kuwait recently settled an old dispute allowing them to restart shared oilfields that had long been idled further undermines the view that Riyadh’s decision was spur-of-the-moment escalation after Russia said “nyet” to production cuts.